Enel brakes on the FTSE MIB in Piazza Affari after the quarterly report released on May 6 with markets closed and which, according to Equita, “taking into account the various one offs recorded in the period is substantially in line with expectations”. Ordinary Ebitda, for example, stood at 4.159 billion (-12%), against a consensus of 4.185 billion, net profit at 1.214 billion (1.197 billion) and net financial debt at 45.84 billion (45.777 billion ). “The decrease in the first quarter – underlines Equita – was expected, particularly in Spain and Latin America, but the trend in the quarter was nevertheless worse than expected due to further currency depreciation, the impact of the storm in Texas, the shortage of gas and hydroelectric power in Chile and Covid for the whole quarter (approximately -230 million not expected) offset by a series of positive one-offs on volumes and items linked to CO2 ». Conclusion: “The quality of the first quarter results is therefore slightly below expectations”.
In any case, the broker underlines how the guidance for the year has been confirmed – provided to the financial markets on the occasion of the presentation of the 2021-2023 Strategic Plan and which provides for an ordinary Ebitda between 18.7 and 19.3 billion and a net profit ordinary between 5.4 and 5.6 billion – “despite the worst performance of the first quarter and despite the assumption of a mark to market of currencies with an impact of -1 billion on EBITDA and 250 million on profit”. The compensation will come from the higher capital gain expected on Open Fiber (1.7 billion compared to the 1.4 billion planned). Enel – it is added – remains confident about the recovery, considering the first signs of a rebound in demand and the high energy prices that will contribute positively starting from the second half.
As a result of all this, Equita slightly lowers its EBITDA estimates for the year to 19.149 billion (-2% approximately), moving to the mid-range of the guidance but confirms the positive view on the stock with a buy judgment and target price at 9.3 euros . “The first quarter represents the bottom for Enel with the normalization of the covid effects expected as early as the second quarter of the year”, concludes the broker.
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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)