MILANO – Also there European Commission revises growth estimates for our country upwards. In the spring forecasts released today, Brussels estimates GDP growth of 5% in 2021, compared to + 4.2% put in writing in the spring. “The forecast for 2021 is significantly higher than that of spring. This is due to the substantial upward revision of GDP in the first quarter and the stronger-than-expected economic activity response following the easing of restrictions and mobility,” he notes. the EU executive. On the other hand, downward correction for the 2022 estimates, which went from + 4.4% to + 4.2%. “Italy is expected to reach pre-crisis growth levels in the course of 2022 while there are several other countries that will reach them sooner, in the course of 2021”, said European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni, adding that the release of the dismissals decided by the government goes in the direction of the European indications of a “selective and gradual withdrawal of support measures”.
Growth accelerates over 5%. Visco: “Small banks at risk”
by Rosaria Amato
“Economic activity more resilient than expected”
“Economic activity proved to be more resilient than expected and increased slightly in the first quarter of this year, despite rigorous containment measures,” notes Brussels. “Manufacturing sector performance data and business and consumer surveys suggest that real GDP growth gained further momentum in the second quarter and is expected to strengthen significantly in the second half of the year,” writes the Commission.
As for inflation, “the rise in oil prices is set to increase consumer prices by 1.4% in 2021, before inflation returns to 1.2% in 2022”.
EU estimates also improve
The estimates for the European Union economy have also been revised upwards. In fact, the 2021 summer economic forecasts estimate that the EU economy will expand by 4.8% in 2021 and 4.5% in 2022. In the previous spring forecasts they were 4.2% and 4.4%, the rate of growth for 2021 is significantly higher in the EU (+0.6 percentage points) and in the euro area (+0.5 percentage points), while for 2022 it is slightly higher in both areas (+0, 1 percentage points). Real GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis level in the last quarter of 2021 in both the EU and the euro area. For the euro area, one quarter ahead of the spring forecast.
Consumption still weak
Despite the acceleration of the recovery, consumption by Italian households is still weak. In May, according to data released Wednesday by Istat, retail sales grew by a modest 0.2% compared to April (+ 3.3% in the entire second quarter), driven mainly by non-food products. The level of sales, reports the Institute of Statistics, is still lower, both in value and in volumes, to that prior to the pandemic.