Kick-off tonight at the Olimpico in Rome of Euro 2020. The European football edition, postponed for a year due to the pandemic, sees a large group of national teams ready to compete for the throne of the best team in the Old Continent. For the second time, 24 teams will compete for the continental trophy and for the first time ever it will be an itinerant edition with competitions that will take place in 11 cities around Europe.
For bookmakers, the must-have favorite is France World Champion, but with a fairly small margin compared to the other contenders, with England being the fiercest contender and who could play the wild card of the final phase of the competition to be held. in London (semi-finals and final at Wembley Stadium).
The criteria used by Goldman to decide who will go further
As usual, the Goldman Sachs company has also ventured into the predictions for the European competition relying on a statistical model that examines 6,000 games since 1980 and historical data, as well as considering factors such as the current form, the advantage of playing in home (which has a value of 0.4 goals per game) and team strength (measured with the World Football Elo Rating). Then there is the evaluation of the so-called ‘tournament effect’ which shows that some national teams tend to outperform in tournaments relative to their rating.
Goldman Sachs predictions lead to the conclusion that Belgium will win the European Championships for the first time in history, beating Italy in extra time in the final on 11 July. The reason the model gives Belgium an advantage is mainly its maximum Elo Score, where it ranks first among European nations, just behind Brazil.
In general, the house of business in a report dated late May believes that Euro 2020 there will be a close fight between Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Spain, the four teams seen reaching the semifinals.
Germany and France in trouble
Secondly, forecasts see Germany exiting their tough group ahead of France, but then losing to England at Wembley in the round of 16, with Germany’s low Elo being seen to impact more than its positive effect. about tournaments.
Third important element, the path of France. The Bleus led by Mbappé and Benzema are world champions and boast a high Elo score, however they are penalized in the Goldman model by having ended up in a difficult group, by the lack of the home factor (they are not expected to leave in France) and by the negative momentum in the last few games.
It should always be remembered that these are forecasting models to be taken with a grain of salt as many variables can come into play during the tournament, such as injuries or individual errors. Already before leaving, the Covid emergency for Spain emerged, or precisely on Belgium there is the unknown factor Kevin De Bruyne, the top player in doubt after the injury in the UEFA Champions League final.