19/05/2022 17:51
The obstacles of this 2022 are many, but the banks European they seem to be solid enough to outdo them all. The deterioration in credit that may be caused by the combined action of war and high inflation, with the real risk of a recession, should not slow down the positive trend in earnings. The European rating agency Scope promotes the credit institutions of the Old Continent.
In particular, it “stress test” di Scope promotes – for now – continental credit institutions: they can also bear write-downs three times the current level, thanks to the solidity of the capital. The analysis covered as many as 50 large European banks. The most resilient are the Nordic banks (eg Svenska Handelsbanken, Swedbank, UBS and so on), while the German ones appear more vulnerable.
Then with regard to the banks Italian the defense seems to hold up. The results for the first quarter show that revenues and cost control are stable, with an encouraging trend also for the rest of the year thanks to the increase in rates. The profitability gap with the rest of Europe still needs to be closed, while there is a general alignment on the capital buffer. The Italian financial system, however, contrasts a more limited exposure to the dynamics of cost inflation.
So, between so many difficulties and one possible recession at the gates, the glass for European banks is still absolutely half full. Also thanks to the greater revenue opportunities offered by the rate hike. Test passed, waiting to understand what the macroeconomic scenario will develop in the coming months.