Financial Lianliankan | Stock Market Weekly Review: Where are the potential stocks in the fourth quarter?Fly into the homes of ordinary people
This week’s stock market was just one trading day, and it was also the first trading day in October. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were generally stable. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Component Index both got off to a good start, with gains of 0.67% and 0.73%, respectively. Only the ChiNext Index fell slightly by 0.04%. . The performance of the index is average, and the performance of individual stocks is actually very good. The number of rising stocks exceeds 3,000, accounting for nearly 80%, of which 85 stocks have a daily limit. So, are there any rules for these rising stocks and those falling stocks? Does it herald a hot spot in the fourth quarter? Let’s take a look.
The quarterly K-line is the most worthy of study
To study stock market trends, K-line charts are the most important content. Studying history helps to judge future trends. K-line charts are roughly divided into daily K-line, weekly K-line, monthly K-line, quarterly K-line, annual K-line, etc. Most people tend to only look at the daily K-line. In fact, just looking at the daily trend may not be able to judge the long-term trend. The longer the chart, the more it can reflect the trend of this stock.
Therefore, the K-line value of the research quarter is the largest. Let’s look for some patterns in stocks soaring in the last two quarters. Interestingly, there will be a batch of bull stocks that have doubled every quarter. In the second quarter of this year, 367 A-shares have increased by more than 50%, of which 89 stocks have increased by more than 100%. In the third quarter of this year, the major indexes all fell, and 265 stocks still rose more than 50%, of which 68 stocks rose more than 100%.
What will happen to the bull stocks that have skyrocketed in one quarter in the next quarter? We look at the data.
Of the 367 stocks that rose more than 50% in the second quarter, 214 stocks fell in the third quarter. That is to say, these bull stocks fell by 58% in the next quarter, of which 89 stocks rose more than 100%, and 58 stocks in the third quarter. Decline, the rate of decline was 65%.
From this, we can draw a conclusion that about 60% of the stocks that have skyrocketed in one quarter will fall in the next quarter.
Even if the stocks that continue to rise in the next quarter, most of the gains are not large. The 89 bull stocks that rose more than 100% in the second quarter, only 18 rose more than 30% in the third quarter, that is, only 20% of the stocks still have the next quarter. Better performance. Eighty percent of the stocks either fell or rose very little.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai Composite Index
Caption: SZSE Component Index Weekly K-line Chart
Bull stocks fell mostly in the last quarter and the next quarter
Obviously, stocks that have risen sharply in a quarter should never be chased, because only 20% of the stocks will perform well, and it is difficult for you to grasp which 20% of the stocks have a probability of losing more than 60%. In terms of probability, That said, it’s better not to touch the stocks that have soared.
The stock performance on October 8 also proved this point. In the third quarter, 265 stocks rose more than 50%, and 180 stocks fell on October 8, with a decline rate of 68%. In fact, only 1,000 A-shares fell on October 8, and only 22% of all A-shares fell. However, in the third quarter, the proportion of 265 bull stocks fell as high as nearly 70%.
Looking at the limit-lowering stocks on the first trading day after the National Day, a total of 27 stocks have a limit-falling limit, most of which rose in the third quarter. Among them, 20 stocks rose more than 50% in the third quarter and 7 stocks rose more than 100% in the third quarter.
These data once again show that the bull stocks in the last quarter cannot be chased. These falling stocks are mainly coal, power and new energy stocks, and these sectors are the hot spots in the third quarter, that is, the hot spots in the third quarter are The fourth quarter may become an adjustment sector.
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of the ChiNext Index
Caption: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index
The first trading day of October rose half of the major stocks fell in the third quarter
So, how did the stocks that rose on the first trading day in October perform in the second quarter? On that day, 400 stocks rose by more than 5%, 200 of which fell in the second quarter. That is to say, half of the stocks that rose on the first trading day of October were those that fell in the third quarter. Among them, 85 stocks have daily limit and 32 stocks fell in the third quarter.
Of the 85 daily limit stocks, only 7 stocks rose 50%-80% in the third quarter. That is to say, stocks with large gains in the third quarter have fewer opportunities, but stocks with falling and small gains have more opportunities.
In terms of sectors, the consumer and financial sectors that fell in the third quarter performed well on the first trading day of October. The insurance sector, in particular, was the second-increasing sector. For example, Ping An of China experienced a 24.77% drop in the third quarter and continued to decline. In the three quarters, it has fallen to the position it was four years ago. From the first to the fourth quarter, the trend immediately turned. It rose by 7.73% on October 8, which is one of the contributors to the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index.
The stock performance on the first trading day of October showed that the hot spots and bull stocks in the fourth quarter may change. The bull stocks in the fourth quarter should be found among the stocks with average performance in the previous quarter.
Xinmin Evening News reporter Lian Jianming
Editor: Lu Jiahui