In the past 2021, new energy electric vehicles ushered in a full-blown explosion.
According to the data released by the Travel Association, from January to NovemberNew energy passenger carWholesale 2.807 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 190.2%, shipments were almost three times that of the same period last year.If we shorten the statistical time to a single month, we can easily find that any month in 2021New Energy VehicleSalesBoth are the best in history during the same period.
new energy vehiclesLike a hurricane, it has changed people’s perception of cars from the bottom.
Based on the hot sales of new energy vehicles, the valuations of companies in the entire electric vehicle industry chain have risen.Power Battery, Or downstream new energy vehicles, the valuations of related leading companies are already quite impressive.
In our country where policy subsidies continue to decline, the performance of new energy vehicles indicates that the Chinese market has switched from policy-driven to product-driven. With the improvement of the competitiveness of auto companies and the increase in optional new energy products and brands, consumers are no longer buying new energy vehicles simply because of subsidies, but more because of market considerations.
This means that China’s new energy vehicles have begun to mature.
Looking to the future, the introduction of more and more new energy vehicle products will not only give consumers more choices, but also make the entire market more competitive.
2022 will be the most critical year for the development of China’s new energy vehicles, and even the industrial pattern in the next few decades may begin to take shape in this year.
／ 01 ／
Fading the new “new forces in car-making”
The expected reversal of Weilai Automobile in June 2020 is considered to be the beginning of the rise of this round of new energy electric vehicles. The subsequent listings of Ideal Automobile and Xiaopeng Automobile have amplified the momentum of new energy vehicles to the extreme.
For a time, Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng became the vane of China’s new energy vehicles, and their valuation levels were significantly ahead of traditional car companies, and they were dubbed the “new car-making power” by the market.
The three companies have distinct characteristics and represent different genres of new energy vehicle companies.
Weilai is a high-end route and pays more attention to service. It can be described as a model for all car companies.
Its biggest advantage is to fully promote the battery swap mode, so as to enhance the user experience, so that car owners can avoid queuing during peak hours.ChargeTroubles.
According to Weilai Automobile’s official microblog, as of January 3, 2022, Weilai has built 780 power exchange stations across the country, with a total of 4,582 overcharged piles and destination charging piles, and a complete power exchange network has been established. Weilai plans to expand the number of replacement stations to 1,300 by the end of 2022.
At the same time, NIO also pays special attention to brand marketing and fan service. A total of 38 NIO Houses and 321 NIO Spaces have been built. NIO Service has established a total of 236 service outlets around the world, including 55 NIO service centers and 181 authorized service centers.
Excellent service and exclusive battery swapping model give NIO a lot of points, but with more low-end and mid-range models available, can NIO stick to its high-end strategy for a long time?
Compared with the service-focused NIO, Xiaopeng Motors’ route is more inclined to the technological style, and at the same time, it cannot be defined by a purely traditional car company.
Xiaopeng Motors has always been regarded as the most Tesla-like car company in China, but its imagination is far more abundant than Tesla. In addition to Tesla’s long-established autonomous driving, Xiaopeng Motors has even begun planning for mass production of flying cars.
Regarding the layout of flying cars, the company’s CEO He Xiaopeng once clearly stated: “The goal is to achieve mass production of flying cars by 2024, and the price is controlled within 1 million.” To become the world‘s number one manufacturer of low-altitude manned flying equipment, this may This is the ultimate vision of Xiaopeng Motors.
Dare to think is a good thing, but in China’s capital market, imagination has never been lacking. Xiaopeng needs to solve how to implement what he thinks. After all, it is difficult to obtain financing nowadays by PPT alone.
The last “new force in car-making” ideal car is not as radical as its name, on the contrary, it is the most grounded of the three.
In the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, there wereEnduranceThe pain point of short mileage. For this problem, the ideal car chooses “curve to save the country” and uses a hybrid extended-range route to temporarily solve the endurance problem.
However, with the gradual maturity of the pure electric route, the extended range route of the ideal car has gradually become a bit redundant. At present, Ideal has begun to develop a new generation of high-voltage pure electric platforms Whale and Shark, and both are expected to launch new models in 2023. Whether the pure circuit line can replicate the success of the extended program route may be a problem that the ideal car needs to solve in the future.
On the whole, the advantages and disadvantages of the three companies are equally obvious, but after precipitation in 2021, they have actually completed the “fade”.
For the whole year of 2021, the sales of Ideal Auto, Xiaopeng Auto and Weilai Auto were 90,500, 98,200 and 91,400, respectively. The gap between the three is not large.
Although the data of nearly 100,000 vehicles is not enough to compare withBYDCompared with 594,800 vehicles, but this performance is enough to support them to stay in the first echelon of new energy vehicles.
On the basis of stable sales, the three companies unanimously chose financing to reserve their subsequent competitiveness. In June, Xiaopeng’s second listing in Hong Kong raised HK$14 billion; in August, Ideal Motor’s second listing in Hong Kong raised HK$11.6 billion; Weilai Automobile raised billions of dollars in three additional issuances during the year.
It can be seen that ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai have sufficient ammunition reserves and are expected to further consolidate their competitive advantages.
Recently, the views of the CEO of Weilai in an interview can well represent the mentality of the three companies. Li Bin believes that before 2019, it is only a stage of team training, and the final stage of the auto industry will begin in 2024.
There is no doubt that the new car-building forces that have completed the “fading” have already won tickets for the final stage.
／ 02 ／
New players ensuing
Of course, it is not only Ideal, Xiaopeng and Weilai that have won the tickets for the final stage. For example, BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Shanghai Automotive, which are well done by New Energy, have also won tickets for the finals.
With the gradual improvement of the entire new energy system, more and more players are beginning to try to enter this fast-growing track. In general, these players can be roughly divided into three camps.
The first camp is the “second-line new power” brand composed of Nezha, Weimar, and Leading.
In terms of sales, Nezha, Weimar, and Leader will sell 69,700, 44,200 and 43,100 cars respectively in 2021, which is a clear gap with 100,000. Strategic analysis shows that the “second-tier new power” brands lack differentiation, and focus more on mid-to-low-end models.
2022 will be a crucial year for the “second-line new forces”. Whoever can successfully go public in this year is expected to obtain funds to meet the competition in the final finals, and once the sands fall, it is very likely that this will be the case. Fall.
The second camp came from the latecomers of traditional car companies.
Prior to this, traditional car companies did not pay enough attention to new energy vehicles, which was mainly caused by the rigid corporate physique. In traditional automobile groups, traditional fuel vehicles have the absolute right to speak, while new energy vehicles are often regarded as a department, which causes serious constraints on both resources and strategies.
This is also the reason why “new forces in car-making” can rise quickly, while traditional car companies have been slow to respond.
As traditional car companies began to realize this problem and gradually split up independent new energy brands, it also allowed them to regain the opportunity to fight for tickets to the finals. Geely’s Jikrypton, Chang’an’s Avita, and GAC’s E’an, etc., their performance in 2022 may determine the future life and death of traditional car companies.
The third camp comes from cross-border companies, such as Xiaomi, Evergrande, Huawei, OPPO, etc.
For these companies, their core key to 2022 is whether they can let the market see actual models. These companies have undoubtedly achieved good results in their respective traditional fields, but how to transform this achievement into real products is still not that simple.
Whether it is a gimmick or real strength, it may be known in 2022.
／ 03 ／
Concentration after subsidy decline
When the subsidy subsides, the future of new energy vehicles is already determined by the market.
At the beginning of 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice stating that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. In this regard, auto companies including Tesla and Volkswagen have raised the prices of their vehicles.
In addition to the subsidy decline, there are also a number of new energy vehicles that will be officially implemented in 2022.
If the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires the implementation of the “Technical Conditions for Safety of Motor Vehicle Operation”, it clearly proposes new productionPassenger carEDR (Automobile Event Data Recording System) or a DVR (vehicle video driving record system) that meets the requirements must be installed compulsorily. This aims to eliminate the wrangling problem with car brakes.
For another example, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2021 Edition)”, which officially abolished the restriction on foreign shareholding in passenger car manufacturing and the same foreign company can establish two or less in China Restrictions on joint ventures that produce similar vehicle products.
These policies seem to involve different content, but in the final analysis, they all point to making new energy vehicles more “market-oriented” and “liberalized”, which is also consistent with the development trend of China’s new energy vehicles.
Focus on 2022, after subsidies decline, consumer demand for new energy vehicles may become more concentrated. In the past, many auto companies that relied on subsidies will begin to withdraw, leaving outstanding brands with core competitiveness.
If 2024 really, as Li Bin said, will be the year of the car’s decisive battle, then 2022 is very likely to be a year of great waves and sands. For all players, everyone not only needs to gain a certain market share, but also to accumulate enough capital, which is actually not that difficult.
Car companies that have already won tickets to the finals can further consolidate their market share by virtue of their first-mover advantage. For players who want to catch up, only by coming up with really good products can they grab the market from other car companies. What determines the height of a company is nothing but the product that ultimately gains consumer recognition.
Based on this, after subsidies decline in 2022, the new energy vehicle market will gradually begin to differentiate. Companies with market-competitive products will gain more market share, while gimmick-type companies may gradually lose the trust of consumers.