Despite lower-than-normal demand and nearly full stocks, the main concerns for the European gas market concern supply, due to a busy maintenance season in Norway, geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine war and a potential strike in Australia, which could limit global LNG exports and increase competition between Europe and Asia for fuel. This was stated by Daniela Corsini, senior economist of Intesa Sanpaolo, in a note on the subject.
It is pointed out that in Europe i storage levels of the gas are i highest ever recorded this time of year: Deposits were 93.1% full as of Sept. 2, a new record, versus a five-year average of 81.4% and a 2021 low of just 68.1% full. Therefore, European storages could reach their full capacity by the end of September.
The request European gas is destined to remain limitedaccording to the analyst: total gas demand is about 15% lower than the five-year average, even considering the meteorological impact, and could remain 10% lower than the average until at least mid-2024 due to optimization of processes, fuel savings, weakening industrial production and increasing recession risks.
I price risks they still remain upward oriented in winter, due to threats of supply disruptions, possibly unfavorable weather conditions, competition from Asia in LNG markets and uncertainty over energy production from nuclear or renewable sources.
In no scenariowe read in the analysis by Intesa Sanpaolo, gas prices they will soon return to the average for the period 2015-2019 of 17.5 EUR/MWh due to a structural switch from the Russian pipeline to LNG by sea. (Ticker)