War, tensions on raw materials, inflation and now also the risk of a political crisis are holding back the national economy. According to the Confcommercio research office, in July the GDP will drop by 0.6% compared to June, showing zero growth in the annual comparison. The climate of uncertainty does not even facilitate the propensities to consume: in June, despite the balances, the consumption indicator stops at + 0.7% on an annual basis.
“Consumption is slowing down, inflation is rising, the conflict in Ukraine continues and the prospect of monetary restrictions is worrying. In this context, the political crisis risks having a heavy impact on the economic one ”, said the president of Confcommercio, Carlo Sangalli, commenting on the economic data released this morning by the Confederation. The Italian economy, which also showed great vivacity in the first part of the year, began to show signs of a possible sharp slowdown. In May, both industrial production and employment returned to decline on a cyclical basis; in June, household confidence was at its lowest since November 2020. The result, on the month of July, is therefore the reduction in GDP.
Traders are also worried about the turn that consumption could take. In fact, if in June purchases grew by 0.7% compared to the same month of 2021, some elements should not be overlooked that could represent the first sign of a more attentive attitude of families. In June, tourism and leisure-related services registered an increase of 11.9% in the annual comparison. Other assets, however, have shown negative signs: cars, for example, also in the last month consolidate a crisis that has been going on for a year for others, but also clothing, footwear and some non-durable goods for the home. are falling. Even for food, Confcommercio maintains, the signs of a downsizing of demand have consolidated. After all, inflationary tensions show no sign of abating: the traders’ association estimates a 0.7% increase in consumer prices for July, with a variation of 8.2% on an annual basis. In a context in which the progressive growth of inflation makes the return to pre-pandemic lifestyles increasingly complicated, for the moment families continue to direct the available resources towards services related to tourism and the use of free time, even if in many cases the consumption levels are still far from the values of the same month of 2019, with particularly high peaks for recreational services (-46.2% on June 2019) and for hotels and out-of-home drinks (-13.4 %).