Original title: Japan and South Korea stock markets plummet during the National Day holiday, inflation concerns may be the biggest culprit
From the Financial Association (Shanghai, Editor Liu Rui),During the National Day holiday, while the U.S. stock market showed an overall turbulent trend, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets fell extremely sharply.
During the period from September 30 to October 7, the Nikkei 225 index fell by 5.98%. The three trading days from October 4 to 6 fell by 1.13%, 2.19%, and 1.05%, and once dropped by more than one. New monthly low.
The South Korean stock market is also showing the same weakness. From September 30th to 7th, South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell by 3.55%, of which the three trading days of October 1, 5 and 6 fell 1.62%, 1.89% and 1.82% respectively, which was 2869 from the lowest point of this year. Point is only one step away, hitting a new low of more than 9 months.
For comparison, during the same period, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones index rose by 0.93%, 1.06% and 0.98% respectively.
However, on October 7 and 8, the Japanese and South Korean stock markets ushered in a rebound after stabilizing. The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.5% on the 7th, and rose 1.79% within the press day on the 8th; the South Korean KOSPI index rose 1.76% on the 7th, and rose slightly by 0.09% within the press day on the 8th.
The Japanese and South Korean economies are quite sensitive to inflation
One of the main culprits of the Japanese and South Korean stock market crashes may come from concerns about inflation, because imported inflation is very sensitive to the impact of economic recovery in export-oriented economic countries such as Japan and South Korea.
During the National Day holiday, the Bloomberg Commodity Price Index soared to the highest level in history. WTI crude oil futures rose above the US$79/barrel mark on October 5th. The benchmark LNG price in Asia also rose to US$35/Mbtu on the same day. Units, an increase of 136% from the beginning of the year, setting a record high.
Tatsufumi Okoshi, a senior economist at Nomura Securities, predicts that LNG prices will remain at the current level for the time being and may rise further in the future. Okoshi said, “The peak of winter energy demand has not yet arrived, and the market’s shortage of fabrics will continue…As energy prices continue to rise, there is a growing awareness of inflation, which makes it difficult for stock prices to rise。”
Toru Nishihama, chief economist of Japan’s Dai-ichi Life Research Institute (Dai-ichi Life Research Institute), expressed similar concerns: “More and more people worry that rising oil prices will cause global inflation and pour cold water on the economy. Outlook In the future, the trend of the global financial market will not only depend on the trend of the new crown epidemic and its impact on the global economy, but will also depend on the international crude oil price.”
Olivier d’assier, head of research for the Asia-Pacific region of Qontigo, a world-renowned portfolio management analysis and index service provider, said: “In fact, the strength of the (Asia-Pacific market) economic recovery, inflationary pressures, and geopolitics There are many uncertainties in aspects such as climate change and climate change.”
In addition, the market almost universally expects the Fed to cut stimulus measures and the rise in U.S. Treasury yields will put pressure on the stock market. Concerns about slowing economic growth in major East Asian economies have also weakened market confidence.
The Japanese stock market’s previous performance was too strong, which may also be the technical reason for this correction.In mid-September, the Nikkei 225 index once rose to a 31-year high, and by October 1, the Nikkei 225 index broke all short-term support and entered a short-term downtrend.
In this regard, De Asir believes: “The economy in the Asia-Pacific region has not returned to normal. In some places, it is still facing epidemic-related restrictions, but the previous performance of the market seems to have returned to normal. This adjustment is only a realistic adjustment. .”
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