On the evening of March 8, the central bank released a big move to hand over 1 trillion yuan of surplus profits to the central government, which aroused strong market attention. What does this action by the central bank mean? “This is part of the active finance mentioned in the National People’s Congress this year.” NomurasecuritiesChief Economist Lu Ting told the Financial Associated Press.
Compared with last year, this year’s target fiscal deficit rate was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 2.8%. In this regard, Lu Ting emphasized that the deficit rate should be stably adjusted from the central budget.fundgovernment fund budgets and state-owned capital operating budgets are considered to be 2.3 trillion yuan, and the actual fiscal deficit rate may reach 4.8%, reflecting a very positive fiscal policy.
At the same time, due to the continuous impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global market fluctuated violently, and the domestic market was not immune to it. Lu Ting said that the direct impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the Chinese economy is still relatively small, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the market.
In addition, for this year’s government work report,GDPWith an expected growth of 5.5%, Lu Ting said that the government may start from three aspects in the future, one is a proactive fiscal policy, the second is to promote consumption, and the third is to continue to introduce real estate-related policies.
The actual fiscal deficit rate may be 4.8%, reflecting a proactive fiscal policy
On the evening of March 8, the peopleBankeveningannouncementSaid that, in accordance with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the deployment of the government work report, in order to enhance the available financial resources, this year the peopleBankThe balance of profits was handed over to the central government in accordance with the law, with a total amount of more than 1 trillion yuan, mainly used for tax refunds and increased transfer payments to local governments, supporting the relief of enterprises, stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihood. In this regard, some analysts say that this is equivalent to increasing the fiscal deficit by 1% and reducing the reserve ratio by 50BP across the board.
NomurasecuritiesChief Economist Lu Ting believes that the announcement of the central bank that night “turning over 1 trillion yuan of surplus profits to the central government in accordance with the law” is part of the active finance mentioned at the National People’s Congress this year.
In 2022, the fiscal deficit target is 2.8%, down from last year’s target of 3.2%. However, taking into account factors such as the use of the central budget stabilization fund, the transfer of funds from the government fund budget and the state-owned capital operating budget, and the use of carryover and surplus funds, “if the central budget stabilization fund, the government fund budget and the state-owned capital operating budget are used together, The actual fiscal deficit rate may reach 4.8%, reflecting a very proactive fiscal policy.”
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has little direct impact on the Chinese economy, and the market does not need to overreact
At present, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the global market is falling into a “panic mode”, with commodities soaring, stock markets plummeting, and US bond yields plummeting. So what is the relationship between domestic market performance and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict?
Lu Ting believes that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict affects the domestic market both fundamentally and emotionally.
From the perspective of market sentiment, the global capital market fluctuates violently due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and it is difficult for China to stay safe.International investors usually reduce their allocation to emerging markets due to safe-haven demand.Shenzhen Stock ConnectThere have also been outflows, but the overall scale is not large and within the normal range.
In terms of fundamentals, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to rising prices of crude oil and grain, which has created a certain amount of inflationary pressure in the country, and has also caused some investors to worry about stagflation.
But specifically, Lu Ting believes that the direct impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on China’s economy is still small.
One is that the domestic dependence on Russia’s natural gas is significantly lower than that of countries such as Europe; the other is that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, part of Russia’s demand has turned to China, which is conducive to domestic exports.
Therefore, Lu Ting said that there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the market.
Achieving the expected GDP growth of 5.5%, or starting from three aspects
This year’s government work report proposes that in 2022 China willgross domestic productIt is expected to grow by about 5.5%, exceeding the market’s previous consensus.
Lu Ting believes that the 5.5% economic growth target fully demonstrates the government’s firm determination to stabilize growth. It is indeed difficult to achieve this goal. In the future, the government may start from the following aspects:
One is a proactive fiscal policy. As mentioned above, in 2022, the government has arranged a budget deficit of 2.8%, and at the same time allocated 2.3 trillion yuan of funds from the central budget stabilization fund, government fund budget and state-owned capital operation budget, which will be used for tax refund and increase Transfer payments to local governments, so the actual fiscal deficit rate may reach 4.8%.
The second is to promote consumption. At present, epidemic prevention and control has formed constraints on residents’ consumption. If my country can timely propose an exit route for the epidemic prevention and control policy, it will form a more positive role in promoting consumption.
The third is to continue to introduce real estate-related policies. At present, some places have introduced some easing policies, but so far no particularly positive effect has been formed.Therefore, the real estate policy needs to be further relaxed. He suggested that, especially in big cities, the policy can increase the supply of land, which not only meets the needs of new citizens to buy houses, but also does not lead tohouse pricerise too fast.
(Article source: Financial Associated Press)