15 million more jobs between now and 2050. The positive balance of the “net-zero” strategy, ie zero carbon dioxide emissions, can be the driving force for global employment. Provided that there is precise coordination between governments, institutions and social partners. This is stated by the latest study produced by McKinsey & Company entitled “The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring”. Report that analyzed the extent of the economic changes necessary to reach the net-zero target, taking into consideration 69 countries and sectors that produce 85% of total emissions.
The ecological transition, many would call it the “green revolution”, can take off. While Glasgow’s COP26 produced controversial results and, in many respects, fell short of the expectations of economists, analysts and investment fund managers, the awareness that more action against the climate emergency underway is well rooted in policymakers. And it is precisely to them that McKinsey’s most recent analysis on the subject is addressed. Study that starts from a positivist assumption. In other words, that, net of costs, the net result will be such as to make the positive externalities greater than the negative ones. As the strategic consulting company, which started from the Net Zero 2050 scenario of the Network for greening the financial system (Ngfs) explains, if it is true that the starting phase will be painful, it is equally true that when fully operational the world of work will be subject to of positive and lasting changes. “A reallocation of the workforce may be necessary, considering that the transition could lead to the creation of approximately 200 million new direct and indirect jobs, but at the same time the loss and retraining of 185 million positions by 2050, to a positive net balance of 15 million new jobs, ”the report states. A result that could therefore produce new skills, new jobs, new innovations.
There will be no shortage of costs, because there are no free meals. Specifically, explains McKinsey, “The scale of the economic transformation will be significant. The capital invested in physical assets should amount to approximately 275 trillion dollars, equal to 7.5% of global GDP, by 2050 – about 9.2 trillion a year – which corresponds to an increase of 3.5 trillion compared to the ‘current level of annual expenditure, as a consequence of the transition from high-emission to low-emission activities “. For example, continues the analysis, “today 65% of energy and land use expenditure is devoted to high-emission products; in the future, 70% will be oriented towards low-emission products and related infrastructures, thus reversing the current trend ”. In this context, however, we must keep an eye on the timing: “The changes will be concentrated in the first phase of the transition. The next decade will be crucial. Spending could rise to 8.8% of GDP between 2026 and 2030, compared to the current 6.8%, before falling again ”. This is why the initial grounding will be crucial for the determination of future scenarios. Especially because, in such a delicate phase, the first steps are those that can avoid future imbalances. “Economic changes would be much more significant in the event of an unordered transition,” continues McKinsey. If not managed properly, “the transition would entail various risks, including shortages of energy supply and price increases”. Elements that could affect citizens, amplifying existing inequalities.
The goal is to lead the world towards a greener future without a hitch. And precisely for this we need a global effort, which will be both economic and political. “An orderly transition would not only ward off the worst effects of climate change, but would bring with it considerable benefits. For example, it would result not only in lower energy costs, but also in a more careful conservation of natural capital and in better health conditions for the world‘s population ”, explains Marco Piccitto, McKinsey Senior Partner and Director of the McKinsey Global Institute. Who praises “the unity of purpose and action necessary for this transition”, considered “a good omen also to solve other problems of a global nature”. However, Piccitto says, “at the same time, the short-term risks of a poorly managed or, worse, unmanaged transition cannot be ignored.” In other words, there is the fear that the promises will not be followed by facts, concrete actions. And in this case, the eyes must be focused on two countries in particular, China and India. Beijing and New Delhi have guaranteed that they will not waste time. Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, from the virtual stage of the just concluded World Economic Forum (WEF), stressed that India will be greener, cleaner, more sustainable and more credible in the next 25 years. The hope is that he is right.