In 2021, Italy’s GDP will rise by 5.9%, up from May and by 4.1% in 2022. This is how the OECD estimates that there will be a global growth of 5.7%, 0.1 points percentages lower than the forecasts of last May, while on 2022 it indicates a plus 4.5%, in this case revised upwards by 0.1 points.
. On the inflation front, the OECD sees a 1.6% growth in the headline index for Italy both this year and next with an increase in estimates of 0.3% for 2021 and 0 respectively. , 6% for 2022. As regards core inflation, the forecast is + 0.7% this year (from + 1.2% in May) and + 1.2% next (from + 0.8%).
“A rapid increase in demand as economies reopened has pushed up the prices of key commodities such as oil and metals, as well as food, with a stronger effect on inflation in emerging markets,” the organization writes. “The disruption of supply chains caused by the pandemic has added cost pressures. At the same time, the shipping costs have risen sharply ”. But the Interim Outlook says these inflationary pressures should eventually fade. Consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is expected to peak towards the end of 2021 and slow down in 2022. The report warns that to keep the recovery on track, more international efforts are needed to provide low-income countries with the resources to vaccinate their populations, both for their own and global benefits.
Support from macroeconomic policy is still needed as long as the outlook is uncertain and employment has not yet fully recovered, but clear guidance from politicians is needed to minimize risks by looking ahead. Central banks should clearly communicate the likely sequence of moves towards eventual policy normalization and the extent to which any overshooting of inflation targets will be tolerated. “The world is experiencing a strong recovery thanks to the decisive action taken by governments at the height of the crisis. But as we have seen with the distribution of vaccines, progress is not uniform”, said the secretary general of the Interim Economic Outlook. OECD Mathias Cormann.