Markets backsliding after the Fed. The Ftse Mib, after a positive start, closed -0.66% at 24.123.58 points. The statement from the Kremlin contributes to influencing today’s mood, according to which indications of significant progress in the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev for the ceasefire in Ukraine are “wrong”. Another element of nervousness for the markets is the flattening of the Treasury curve (in the 2-10 year segment it is at its lowest since March 2020), usually seen as an indicator of recession risk. Last night the Fed made its first rate hike, which should be followed by another six hikes by the end of the year. Among analysts there are those who reveal the risk of an even more aggressive Fed over the course of the year. In particular, Goldman Sachs continues to see a significant risk of a 50 basis point hike in one of its upcoming meetings, while for 2023 it indicates 4 possible hikes.
Today it was the Bank of England’s turn to raise rates by 25 basis points. This is the third consecutive hike and the BoE also fears that inflation will escalate due to the war in Ukraine. On the energy front, oil prices start to warm up again with Brent pushing up to 106 dollars a barrel in the afternoon. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said markets could lose three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil and refined products by April. A loss of supply far greater than the expected decline of one million bpd per day due to the increase in fuel prices.
In the front row today in Piazza Affari the Diasorin stock (+ 7.7% to 137.6 euros) which last night released the 2021 accounts. The year ended with numbers in sharp increase: revenues at 1,237.7 million ( + 40.4%), net profit of 356.9 million (+ 43.8%) and cash generation of 300.7 million compared to 232.2 million at December 31, 2020. Equita analysts have raised the recommendation to buy with target price increased to 158 euros in light of better than expected results and 2022 guidance confirmed.
Saipem also performed well (+ 4.1%), which won a $ 325 million drilling contract in Norway. The other oil stocks also rose (+ 3.7% Tenaris and + 2.7% ENI) in the wake of the rise in oil prices.
Among the minus signs are the banks with -4.5% for UniCredit and -4.9% for Banco BPM. Intesa Sanpaolo was also bad (-3.5%) which yesterday detailed its exposure in Russia and Ukraine which amounts to a total of 5.1 billion. “Exposure to Russia limited and manageable”, the experts of Equita remark that they estimate about -80bps of impact on capital in the worst case scenario and do not see the shareholder remuneration policy at risk.
Out of the Ftse Mib, violent sales on the Juventus title (-7.8%). To destabilize the title of the Juventus club is the scorching defeat in the Champions League. The 0-3 with which yesterday’s match ended in Turin sanctioned the exit of Allegri’s team from the highest continental competition. It is the third consecutive year that Juve are eliminated in the round of 16.