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original title:[收盘评论]September 1 DCE market: the policy of suppressing production is further deepened iron oreTwo consecutive days of heavy losses Source: Wenhua Finance
Wenhua Finance (Editor Liu Yunjie)-The main iron ore player Masukura fell for the second day in a row, hitting a low of 758.5 yuan/ton during the session, returning to the previous low with a decline of 7.78%, and the trading volume expanded from 149,000 lots to 815,000 lots. Index deposit funds plummeted by nearly 1.7 billion.
Production restrictions in various regions have continued to advance, and there are signs of increasing efforts. Due to the strengthening of dual control of energy consumption, the Guangxi region has imposed production restrictions on local steel companies, and some companies have reduced their output by 20%. In addition, the environmental protection inspection team has recently moved into Guangdong, Sichuan, Shandong and other provinces. Some companies have received notices to temporarily suspend or reduce production, which may affect the time for up to one month. In addition, production restrictions in the Northeast region have also been implemented. 9 steel mills said they have received relevant information The department notified that “this year’s crude steel output will not be higher than last year”, it is expected that the output of molten iron will hardly increase in the short term, the demand for iron ore entering the furnace will be curbed, and the market pessimism will again drive prices down.
Judging from high-frequency data, the average daily production of molten iron and the daily consumption of imported ore continue to decline, and the demand for iron ore is weak. Moreover, after the disk fell again, steel mills were not very enthusiastic about replenishing their stocks at low prices. Yesterday, my steel network calculated that the total transaction volume of iron ore in major ports across the country was 900,000 tons, a slight increase of 4.9% from the previous month. Today, the price of imported ore at the port fell sharply. Among them, 61% of PB powder at Qingdao Port fell by 20 yuan to 1040 yuan/wet ton.
My steel net data shows that in the past two weeks, iron ore in ports has shown a trend of accumulation. In addition, both mainstream mines and non-mainstream mines will increase production in the second half of the year. Donghai Futures commented that the medium-term downward trend of ore has been established, but the risk of rebound in the short term still exists. First, the global iron ore shipment volume has fallen from the previous week. Second, the profit of steel mills is at a medium-to-high level, and the demand for steel will be in peak season. Thirdly, due to the increase in purchasing demand due to some traders in order to deliver goods to buyers at the end of the month.
Huatai Futures believes that the policy of suppressing production has been implemented one after another, and the output of molten iron has steadily declined, and there is still room for decline in the future. With the seasonal improvement in demand for finished products and the tightening of crude steel production suppression policies, iron ore supply and demand have begun to undergo a significant reversal.
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