di Emergency Tabbara
The deadly attack on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus, blamed on Israel, risks sparking an explosion in the Middle East, with Iran possibly retaliating through its regional allies.
Monday’s unprecedented raid on the consular section of the Iranian embassy left 13 dead, including the most senior Iranian officer in Syria, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and six other members of the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s ideological army. “This is a major escalation. By targeting an Iranian diplomatic facility, Israel has crossed the line,” said Ali Vaez, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Iran and Syria have accused Israel, their sworn enemy, but the latter has not yet confirmed its responsibility for the raid. Israel rarely confirms attacks in neighboring Syria, where Iran, the pro-Iranian Lebanese Hezbollah and other groups loyal to Tehran provide military support to the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad in the war that began in 2011. The Israeli military has stepped up its attacks against these targets since the start of the war in Gaza against Hamas, triggered by a bloody attack by the Palestinian Islamist movement against Israel on 7 October.
Iran, which supports Hamas while denying any involvement in the October 7 attack, has mobilized its allies in the region, from Lebanon to Iraq via Yemen, to attack Israeli targets or those of the United States, Israel’s main ally. despite having stated that he does not want a regional war. But after the attack in Damascus, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned on Tuesday that “the perverse Zionist regime will be punished by our brave men.”
The logic of escalation
“The attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus transgressed many red lines,” says Bassam Abou Abdallah, a Syrian analyst close to the government who heads the Damascus Strategic Research Center. “There were rules of engagement, but now it is open war between Israel and the resistance axis,” he adds. Hamas’ allies, including the Lebanese Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthi rebels, are in fact brought together by Iran in what is described as the “axis of resistance” to Israel. Iran could use its auxiliaries to respond to the attack.
Bassam Abou Abdallah believes that “it is clear that we are in a logic of escalation”. “Attacks against American bases in Iraq, Syria or elsewhere could resume.” Although, according to a US official quoted by the Axios website, the United States told Iran that it was “not involved” in the attack on Damascus.
In late January, pro-Iranian groups in Iraq halted their attacks on American bases in the region after a bombing in Jordan that killed three American service members. The decision was made to avoid an escalation and after Iran criticized the attacks.
Hezbollah also declared that the Damascus attack “will not go unpunished.” In support of its ally Hamas, Hezbollah bombs Israeli border posts almost daily, but for the moment it refrains from hitting targets far from the border. “Iran is likely to make Israel pay, but indirectly and through the intermediation of its partners and auxiliaries in the region,” says Ali Vaez. According to the analyst, Tehran’s “dilemma” is that “the absence of a response could be a sign of weakness for Israel (…) But retaliation could lead to more severe actions by the United States or Israel (… )”.
The most dangerous enemies
According to analysts, the attack on Damascus could also be an attempt by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to provoke a regional conflict. “Under American pressure, Netanyahu no longer has time to continue the war in Gaza and is turning to Lebanon and Syria,” says Nick Heras, an expert at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, referring to American pressure on Israel to Don’t drag the war to Gaza.
Israel believes that “the Iranians are managing the fronts from Damascus” to Gaza and Lebanon and Netanyahu “expects the next regional war with Iran” in which he “hopes to be supported by the United States“, adds the expert.
“The Israelis know that the Revolutionary Guards will be their most dangerous enemy in this war and are trying to eliminate its most important leaders,” he concluded.
© Agence France-Presse