Real estate market in crisis, mortgages and sales collapse
The recent sudden interruption of assignment of credits and gods discounts on the invoice related to Superbonus it dealt a heavy blow to the construction sector, which was already preparing for the worst. Interviewed by Corriere della Seraaccording to the president of Ance, Alessandro Gerotto, the prospects for this year are even bleaker than those during the crisis of 2008.
After the fervor generated by the generous incentive of 110% for energy efficiencya market correction was expected, but no one expected such a sudden collapse in building sector and of trades. Even last year, the new disbursements of mortgages did not record positive results, mainly due to the increase in interest rates.
The data of Bank of Italy for 2023 they show a decrease of 26.1% in new ones mortgages in Veneto, excluding subrogations, compared to the previous year. This resulted in a reduction in the supply of loans for the purchase of houses. Quarterly, we noticed a start with a decline of 21.5%, which reached its peak in the second quarter with -34.5%, and then stabilized at -30.4% and -16.6% in the last three months of the year.
The elimination of the Superbonus e the instability of the real estate market they are having a negative impact on the entire production chain, involving construction companies, installers, plasterers, parquet workers, plumbers and suppliers. Historic businesses, often family-run and with consolidated customers, appear to be the most resilient, while it is difficult to assess the survival of new businesses that arose during the Superbonus era. However, many businesses are now having to deal with the burden of accumulated receivables.
As he writes Courierthe real estate sales they recorded a decrease in 2023 and the forecast for 2024 is no longer optimistic. The decrease in supply and constant demand have led to a increase in real estate pricesshortening sales times.
The EU Housing Directive a low energy consumption it could offer a recovery opportunity for the construction sector, but the situation is currently uncertain. Forecasts indicate a further decline in investment in the construction and renovation sector, while the public sector appears to be the only one to show growth of 20%.
The artisans, fundamental for the whole construction supply chain, are also experiencing a crisis phase. It is necessary to propose the incentives in a clear and orderly way to guarantee the vitality of the sector, with particular attention to low environmental impact homes.