New record since May 2019 for US 10-year Treasury rates, which jumped up to 2.475%. 10-year BTP rates are also on fire, rising to 2.08%, a record since April 2020.
Analysts’ forecasts on the next moves by Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve become more hawkish. Citi’s research division now expects a roundup of monetary tightenings, each of 50 basis points, in the months of May, June, July and September.
“We now expect the Fed to raise rates by 275 basis points in 2022 (up from + 200bps previously expected), with hikes of 50 basis points in May, June, July and September and squeezes of 25 basis points in October and December, until to reach a range between 2.75% and 3% at the end of 2022 “, reads the Citi note.
Hawkish also forecast Bank of America, which announced that it expects a monetary tightening of 50 basis points in June and July, and rate hikes of 25 basis points in other meetings of the FOMC, the monetary policy arm of the Fed.
“The Fed has agreed to be lagging behind (relative to rising inflation” and will consequently “be encouraged by the resilience of the economy and financial markets. The question that remains is whether it will be willing to impose severe suffering on the economy. , in order to curb inflation, “commented Ethan Harris, an economist at Bank of America.