Edit/Bian Chun
After breaking the $1 trillion mark at the end of last month,TeslaThe market value has continued to grow by leaps and bounds in recent days, reaching $1.2 trillion in market value. But the latest forecast by David Trainer, CEO of independent investment research company New Constructs, is surprising. He believes that Tesla’s market value is overvalued by about $1 trillion, and its stock price may fall by 88%. To about $150 per share.
Tesla shares rose 1.3% on Thursday to $1229.91; in the past month, the stock has risen by about 57%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, performance reports, and a large order of 100,000 cars by Hertz, a car rental company, have driven its stock price to soar.
Tesla’s latest market value is basically equivalent to the sum of all traditional automakers in the world, but Trainer believes that this number is meaningless. He is based on model estimates from its sales and profits.
Trainer wrote in a report released on Thursday,A valuation of US$1.2 trillion means that Tesla’s sales will exceed the total global passenger electric vehicle market, and by 2030, Tesla’s profitability will exceedApple. “His research looks at how much Tesla’s sales and profits need to be in order to be worthy of such a high market value.
He believes that Tesla must sell nearly 31 million cars a year by 2030 to justify its current valuation. This figure was more than what he expected at the time for the entire industry’s output.
His expectations are also supported by data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). According to the IEA’s previous forecast report, the basic scenario is that by the end of 2030, the global annual sales of electric vehicles will be approximately 28 million. However, the IEA also predicts that in the most optimistic scenario, approximately 47 million electric vehicles will be sold globally by 2030.
It is worth noting that the IEA report was released in April, when many automakers had not yet committed to investing huge amounts of money in vehicle electrification and battery production capacity. In August of this year, US President Joe Biden (Joe Biden) announced that his goal is to account for 50% of new car sales by 2030.
Of course, the most important thing Tesla currently lacks is bulls. Even so, most of them do not believe that the company’s annual sales will reach 31 million vehicles by 2030.Morgan StanleyAnalyst Adam Jonas has a “buy” rating on Tesla stock with a target price of $1,200, and is expected to sell about 8 million Tesla a year by then.
Jonas believes that Tesla will be more profitable than traditional automakers.But Trainer insists that Tesla’s operating margin will beGeneral Motors(General Motors) Equivalent. He said that 31 million vehicles sold means that Tesla’s operating profit will reach 131 billion U.S. dollars by 2030, which is higher than Apple’s current operating profit of more than 100 billion U.S. dollars.
Trainer also said that if Jonas’s prediction of Tesla’s sales of 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, assuming that Tesla’s net operating profit margin after tax is equivalent to GM’s 8.5%, it means that the company’s annual The profit can only reach 30 billion U.S. dollars.
Of course, Tesla’s recent profit margins have been leading the industry. This is not surprising, because Tesla cars are very popular and the company does not have to bear the heavy pension obligations of its established competitors. Tesla’s gross profit margin in the third quarter exceeded that of car companies such as General Motors, Ford and Volkswagen.
But in the long run, Tesla’s profit margins are difficult to predict, depending on factors such as software sales (all automakers provide software features that can be sold through subscription) and battery costs.
However, Trainer believes that his assumption is fair. “All in all: The risk/reward offered by Tesla is low,” he wrote.
The bulls are hard to shake
Trainer’s views are unlikely to shake Tesla’s strong bull camp. Among the 44 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, 14 analysts set Tesla’s target valuation above $1 trillion.
The bulls firmly believe that Tesla is a leader in the field of electric vehicles, and its sales and production will grow at an average annual rate of 50% in the foreseeable future. They also believe that electric cars will be more profitable than traditional cars, and Tesla will maintain its cost advantage.
Many people who are optimistic about Tesla also believe that Tesla’s energy storage business and possible self-driving taxi business will bring considerable sales.
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