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On June 22, the domestic commodity futures market opened with mixed results.iron oreThe main force of stone futures opened fell more than 3%,Hot roll, Thread fell more than 2%, live pigs,apple、Coke、Coking coalFell more than 1%.palm, Soybean Oil and Soybeans rose more than 2%.
crude
There are three main factors affecting oil prices: the currency environment, the contradiction between supply and demand, and the Iran issue. From the perspective of demand, the global economy has recovered, the epidemic has improved, and vaccination has continued to advance. Coupled with the arrival of the summer consumption season, demand is indeed recovering strongly. The current total crude oil consumption is expected to be around 97 million barrels per day, while the supply side From a point of view, there are about 95.8 million barrels, and there is still a gap of 1.2 million barrels. The countries that can contribute to the increase in output mainly come from three parts, OPEC, Russia, and the United States. Although the number of wells in the U.S. has increased recently, it also increased by 8 units last week, but this number is not enough to support a large-scale increase in production. If the U.S. wants to reach the pre-epidemic level by the end of 2022, it will have to increase the number of wells by 5% every week. Therefore, the probability of short-term shale oil return is small. From the OPEC side, the OPEC+ organization headed by Saudi Arabia and Russia has been reducing production in an orderly manner. Although it is continuously releasing output, the supply of output cannot meet the growth in demand. Saudi Arabia voluntarily reduced its output by 1 million barrels in January. , So far the 1 million barrels have only returned to 800,000 barrels. Iran is the biggest bearish, but there has been no effective progress in the short-term US-Iran negotiations. Coupled with the arrival of hardliners, the uncertainty of the negotiations has increased.
At the currency level, the Fed’s June FOMC resolution was a surprise to the hawks. The market expected monetary easing to be tightened ahead of schedule. The New York Fed President Williams’ speech highlighted the dovish stance, and market concerns have eased. The bullishness of the three main lines promotes that crude oil still maintains an upward market structure. In the long run, there is no basis for a long-term shortage of crude oil. Now demand is less than 3 million barrels before the epidemic. It is possible that demand wants to return this year before the epidemic. Smaller, the demand recovery in the second half of this year is expected to gradually slow down. On the whole, short-term crude oil still maintains a strong market structure, but affected by the Fed’s hawkish remarks, crude oil prices will be suppressed to a certain extent due to the nature of anti-inflation assets, although the short-term emotional impact may promote further price increases. It is possible, but it is not recommended to follow up.
Pig
In the live pig spot market, prices remain weak, consumption has slowed down and the supply pressure has not improved. Consumption has increased slowly with the seasonality. The Dragon Boat Festival stimulus was short-lived, and the supply side has a large increase in slaughter, superimposing the current large fat surplus and capable mothers. The replacement of pigs is eliminated, the supply is still greater than the demand, and the price has not yet shown a signal to stop falling. In the futures market, the trend remains unchanged with the downward trend of the spot, and the disc premium has dropped from about 5 yuan to about 4 yuan. However, as the spot price base becomes smaller and as the expiration time of the LH2109 contract advances, there is a high probability that the disc premium will continue to converge before the spot stops falling. .
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Editor in charge: Zhao Siyuan
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