Italy’s GDP will grow by 5.8% this year and by 4.2% next. The estimate is contained in the World economic outlook of the International Monetary Fund which revised the figure published in the July report up by 0.9%. Despite this, the forecast remains below the + 6% expected by the government and certified in the Nadef. On the other hand, the growth expected in 2022 remains unchanged and in line with the executive’s estimates.
Unemployment will continue to rise and the rate, according to the IMF, will stand at 10.3% this year and 11.6% next. Inflation, on the other hand, remains under control: according to the report, it will stand at 1.7% in 2021 and 1.8% in 2022. Private consumption will rise by 4.2% and 5% respectively, while demand final will grow by 5.6 and 4.2% in the two years. A positive balance is expected both for the foreign balance (+ 0.2% and + 1.2% of GDP) and for the current account (+3.7 and + 3.6%).
Global growth limited to + 5.9% for 2021, weighs vaccine gap
The IMF files world growth for 2021 at + 5.9%, 0.1 percentage points less than the + 6% of the July forecast. The estimate for 2022 remains unchanged at + 4.9%. The slowdown in advanced economies, which will grow this year by 5.2%, or 0.4 percentage points less than previous forecasts, weighs on the downward revision. Growth of 6.4% (+0.1 points) is forecast for the emerging economies. «The balance of risks on growth is downwards – observes the IMF in the World Economic Outlook -. “The global economic recovery continues but has weakened,” says the Fund, stressing that the “risks to the economic outlook have increased.” The Fund explains how the “modest revision masks large cuts for several countries”: “these economic divergences are one the consequence of the high disparities in access to vaccines and in policies supporting the economy. ”Divergences that the“ pandemic and climate change ”are likely to exacerbate, highlights the IMF.
The United States and Germany also fell
The United States is growing less than expected: GDP in 2021 will rise by 6%, one percentage point lower than the July estimates. On the other hand, the growth for 2022 has been revised up by 0.3 points to + 5.2%. This is forecast by the IMF, which has revised upwards to + 5.0% the estimate of the Euroland GDP in 2021 (+0.4 percentage points), keeping growth for 2022 unchanged at + 4.3%.
The IMF has revised its growth estimates for Germany downwards, expected to grow by 3.1% in 2021, or 0.5 percentage points less than the July estimates. For 2022, growth is expected at 4.6% (+0.5 points). On the other hand, France is growing more than expected in 2021, when the GDP will mark + 6.3% (+0.5 points). In 2022, growth is expected to slow down to + 3.9% (-0.3 points). After -9.8% in 2020, Great Britain will grow this year by 6.8% (-0.2) and the next by 5.0% (+0.2).