Tuesday the old incentives restartthey arrive on February 1st new ones But in the end the result is not destined to change: we will almost certainly witness the race to grab bonuses for petrol and diesel (which in 2022 and 2023 ended in a few weeks) and a new gigantic flop on the electric car front, which no one wants. On the other hand, Germany teaches that the asphyxiated market for “plug” cars only moves in the presence of maxi-bonuses: in December, once the incentives are over, the demand for electric in Germany it fell by 50%. A discussion that is even more valid in Italy where the average income of the population is 30% lower than that of the Germans with plug-in cars that cost money 25 to 30% more of the same endothermic models.
A favor to Stellantis
But why do we keep pushing the bonus for the electric ones that no one wants? A premise: the government initially announced its intention to make the “treasure” for endothermics richer by draining resources from electric ones (which remained in the coffers because they were unused). Then came the change of direction and the confirmation of the division of previous years. A a somewhat forced choice in defense of the national industry (and thousands of jobs) given the decision of Stellantis to confirm the transition to “all electric” in 2030. The Franco-Italian group has in fact made a commitment to the executive to return to production a million cars in our country (now they are just under half) in the face of a whole series of concessions and incentives including, in fact, richer bonuses for the purchase of plug-in cars.
An illusion destined to shatter
From the previews, the 2024 incentives will however be richer, almost arriving in some cases a 8mila euro. Not only that: it has already been known that there will be an increase in the state contribution for families with Isee (the indicator used to evaluate and compare the economic situation of families) less than 30,000 euros (beneficiaries will have 50% more funds available). But the basic problem remains: electric cars are too expensive and a family with a gross income of less than 30 thousand euros – bonus or not – will hardly buy a car that costs 30% more than a diesel or petrol one. Not to mention the charging problems, more expensive repairs, greater devaluation of used vehicles. And the same applies to those with an average income. Starting from these premises, the outcome of the incentives, even in 2024, appears obvious.
New and old incentives
The fact is that, while we await the decree on the new 2024 incentives (which Minister Urso will present in the first days of February), bookings relating to the bonuses originally planned for this year are reopening. From 10am next Tuesday 23 January dealers will be able to access the IT platform and enter the data relating to the purchase contracts of the cars benefiting from the incentive – i.e. those with carbon dioxide emissions of up to 135 g/km, therefore also with combustion engines – signed starting from 2 January . An obligatory decision to respect the deadlines, that of the executive, but which presents motorists with a choice: take advantage of the “discount” immediately or wait for the richest one with the risk, but only for the endothermic, of seeing the funds run out and be left empty-handed.
The associations admit: electric is a flop
“We urge the government to launch the new incentives as soon as possible given the electric data – commented the President ofUnrae, Michele Crisci. – In fact, there is a risk of market paralysis with motorists waiting for richer bonuses”. For his part Adolfo De Stefani Cosentinopresident of Federauto, the Federation of car dealers, admits: “A very tiring year ends, especially with the run-up to electric vehicles which remains at an asphyxiated level. Furthermore, the phenomenon of car registrations was also significant in December, highlighting the worrying difficulties in real sales of electric and plug-in cars, also due to the price lists which remain high”. “The market is not rewarding rechargeable electric vehicles – he comments Simonpaolo Buongiardino, president of Federmotorizzazione Confcommercio –. And this despite the fact that recent years have been characterized by a strong push for the sales of electric cars by Europe, car manufacturers and institutions; push which, however, did not achieve the expected effects”.
The request to postpone the 2035 deadline
The analysis of the president of Federmotorizzazione puts the finger on the wound. “Faced with the prospect of going completely electric immediately, with a stop to the registration of endothermic vehicles in 2035, There are already numerous requests to extend the deadlineo di Don’t limit technologies permitted only for electric mobility – explains Buongiardino. – Also because fuels such as have appeared on the market hydrogen, synthetic fuels, but above all as far as we are concerned as a country, the biofuel, obtained from waste vegetable products, which will allow endothermic engines to be powered and registered even beyond the current limit”. “A greater understanding of the problems – he continues – also tends to evaluate the effects of emissions throughout the life cycle of the cars, from manufacturing to disposal, still favoring endothermic vehicles. Without forgetting that the greater electricity demand, if not covered by renewable sources, encourages the use of oil and derivatives and even coal, moving the source of pollution from car exhaust to that of power plants”.
The wind is changing
“Also Germany, which was also decisive in Europe in the choice of electric and which has allocated generous contributions to users to encourage the purchase of electric cars – says the president of Federmotorizzazione – has already decided to eliminate these incentives, without which, as already demonstrated, electric will not grow. But also thereand car manufacturers who had chosen to orient their production towards electric I’m in the process of rethinking: if on the one hand they have compensated for the lower sales with the increase in prices and profitability, they are now struggling with the availability of electric cars produced, but unsold, in stock at dealers”. “At the same time, as a consequence, the used market, which today represents more than three times the size of the new one, has grown not only in volume, but also in per capita value – he concludes. – This is what is called in jargon Cuba effect, that is, the turnover times of the car fleet have become longer and the average age has increased, to the detriment of safety and the environment”. A rethink, however, which does not concern Stellantis with the consequence of seeing renewed incentives that no one wants.
Safe incentives
The fact is that the incentives starting on Tuesday are, like the previous ones, proportionate to CO2 emissions of the new car. They are also higher in the case of scrapping, but linked to the value of the car purchased which must not exceed 42,700 euros (35 thousand euros + VAT) if electric/petrol/diesel/LPG/methane/hybrid and 54,900 euros (45 thousand euros + VAT) if plug-in hybrid. The most expensive cars will not benefit from any discount. In detail:
0-20 g/km of CO2 –205 million euros – Incentive of 5,000 euros with scrapping and 3,000 euros without scrapping.All electric cars, hydrogen cars and some plug-in hybrids fall within the 0-20 g/km range, but the limit to the list price is set 42.700 euro (VAT and optional extras included) currently makes only some electric vehicles and very few plug-in hybrids eligible.21-60 g/km of CO2 – 245 million euros – Incentive of 4,000 euros with scrapping and 2,000 euros without scrapping. Plug-in hybrid cars typically fall within the 21-60 g/km of CO2 range, but only those which with VAT and optional extras have a list price within 54.900 euro.61-135 g/km of CO2 – 120 million euros – Incentive of 2,000 euros with scrapping and 0 euros without scrapping. In the 61-135 g/km of CO2 category there are the least polluting petrol and diesel cars, including mild hybrids, full hybrids, plug-in hybrids, but also some bi-fuel LPG and methane vehicles. The spending ceiling is also set at in this case 42.700 euro (VAT and optional extras included).
The new incentives
Minister Urso announced that the measure will be presented at the beginning of February, but he has already said that the incentives will be “better than those of 2023. Another novelty is the opening to rental company. big absentees from last year. Confirmed the maximum spending limit (see above). The minister has already underlined on several occasions that “work is being done to encourage the purchase of Italian-made cars”. A decision that could have a great impact on the market given that, for example, in 2022 only 19-20% of the incentives went to models produced in Italy”. However, it is unlikely that this path, already successfully tested in America, will be possible to follow European laws on competition and free markets. An expansion to include European producers is probable. Urso might also consider the French example whose bonuses are paid considering in the CO2 count also that emitted during production and transport, so from massively penalize cars produced in China. But here’s what the new incentives could look like based on previews:
CO20 emissions – 20 g/km21 – 60 g/km61 – 135 g/kmDiscount with scrappingIsee > 30,000 euroIsee 30,000 euros 30,000 euroIsee