In the second quarter of 2021, Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 2.7% compared to the previous quarter and by 17.3% in trend terms. Istat communicates this on the basis of preliminary estimates. The “exceptionally marked” increase recorded on an annual basis, explains the Institute of Statistics, derives from the comparison with the minimum point reached in the second quarter of 2020 at the height of the health crisis due to the spread of Covid.
At the turning point of 2021, the growth acquired for the year – the one that would be obtained if in the third and fourth quarters of the year the Italian GDP recorded a zero cyclical change – is 4.8%. Also because Istat has revised upwards the estimates of Italian GDP for the first quarter of 2021. According to the latest calculations, the Italian economy grew by 0.2% against the + 0.1% estimated in June and -0. , 4% of last April’s flash estimate.
After a first quarter of 2021 in slight recovery, in the second quarter of the year the Italian economy recorded very sustained growth, comments Istat. The result benefited above all from a strong recovery in the market services sector, the most penalized by the crisis, from a growth in industry and from a substantial stationary nature of agriculture. The exceptionally marked trend increase in GDP derives from the comparison with the minimum point reached in the second quarter of 2020 at the height of the health crisis.
As usual, the preliminary estimate is provisional, as it is based on indicators that are partly incomplete and subject to revision in subsequent quarters, and mainly on an assessment of the supply components of GDP. In the first quarter, after the revisions, GDP rose by 0.2% on a quarterly basis and fell by 0.7% on the year.
Meanwhile, the rush of inflation also continues. According to preliminary Istat estimates, in July 2021 the national consumer price index for the entire community (Nic), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0.3% on a monthly basis and of 1 , 8% on an annual basis (from + 1.3% the previous month). “The sharp acceleration of inflation in July – comments the Institute – is again due to the prices of energy goods, in particular those regulated” (which include electricity and gas tariffs), which recorded “the highest growth since 1996 », ie since the time series relating to the aggregate is available.