Mediterranean diet vs junk food
In 1986 the Economist invented the Big Mac index to measure the differences in purchasing power between different economies. The trading platform team and Toro, instead he has developed the index of the Mediterranean Diet which, for convenience we will call Pasta Index taking inspiration from the dish that represents the symbol of this type of diet
Index at the top
The basket – explains Gabriel Debach, eToro analyst – includes foods such as bread, rice, cereals, pasta, fruit, vegetables, olive oil, dairy products, fresh fish, dried fruit, poultry, eggs, wine and mineral water. This index is at historic highs while inflation tends to decline. Why?
The olive oil boom
“The Mediterranean Diet – explains the expert – has increased faster when compared to the prices of restaurants and junk food”. The evolution of the last 8 years in the prices of rice (+52%) and vegetables (+42%) had the greatest impact and fruit (+40%) but above all olive oil +90%. The price of olive oil itself emerges as the good with the highest percentage variation trend among the goods monitored by Istat, recording an increase of +46.2% in February 2024
Record increase
The increase in prices led to a significant growth in the Mediterranean Diet index, which recorded an increase of +34% in January 2024. This value compares with a +20% increase in general inflation, +30% of food inflation and, in particular, +19% of fast food.
Food prices
What is particularly relevant is the increasingly wide and high gap between the cost of the Mediterranean diet basket and inflation, which has reached a peak of +13.8%. The gap with food inflation also widened, recording +3.51%. This phenomenon highlights ever more clearly that adopting a healthy diet involves a cost.
Low cost wine and fish
Even if we focus on the period from 2020 to today, January 2024, the factors that contributed to the price increases related to the Mediterranean diet clearly emerge. In this period of time, the most significant increases were recorded in olive oil (+73%), rice (+47%), pasta (+33%) and vegetables (+31%), even exceeding the average increase in the overall cost of the basket (+28%). However, to mitigate these increases, the more modest increases in the price of table wine (+7%), dried fruit (+8%) and fish (+16%) contributed.
UNESCO heritage
The Mediterranean diet, declared an intangible heritage of humanity by UNESCO in 2010 and considered by many nutritionists as a food standard, it is therefore endangered by dramatic increases in prices.
Climate changes
If in the past the increases in gas prices, the effects of the war in Ukraine and climate change had an impact, today the Nino is the new culprit. A significant element was the exceptional climate. 2023 marked the warmest year on record globally, and 2024 is following that path. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed that 2023 was the warmest calendar year in available global temperature data, dating back to 1850. The global average temperature was 14.98°C, exceeding the previous record of 2016 by 0.17°C. El Niño-related climate conditions amplified attention, representing a rapid warming of the Pacific Ocean after three years consecutive periods of opposite La Niña-related climate disturbances.
The race begins in 2022
The price of the “new green gold”, i.e. olive oil, suffers most from this evolution. Data from the International Monetary Fund indicates that the price of olive oil has reached record levels. This dramatic increase began in 2022 and has continued to intensify over time.In Italy, prices of extra virgin olive oil exceeded €9.5 per kilogram at origin, recording an increase of 57.6% compared to the same period the previous year.
Alarming forecasts
Forecasts are not optimistic for the future of the sector. Global olive oil production forecast in 2023/24 is decreasing compared to the previous olive oil campaign, recording a decline of 6.3%. Furthermore, overall volumes are more than 20% below the minimum targets considered necessary for a correct balance between supply and demand. This scenario risks drying up global stocks before the start of the new olive harvest season for oil production, the European Commission reported on the oil market.