Author: Founder Interim Futures Shanghai Tin Analyst Shi Jialiang
[Market resumption]The spot market supply is still tight, the impact of power and production restrictions still exists, long funds continue to dominate, the strong tin market continues, and the Shanghai tin continues to rise within the day. The 10 main contracts rose by 3.37% to 277,500. At one point, it rose to a record high of 278,500 yuan. For Lunxi, as of 17:00, Lunxi rose by 0.87% to 35,300 US dollars, and the trading volume is still low. Taking into account factors such as exchange rate, value-added tax rate and port fees, the internal and external price of tin prices are calculated. The CIF price of 35,500 yuan is 267,200 yuan; plus the consideration of freight, the domestic and foreign prices are almost the same.
[Important information]Fundamental aspects are still positive for tin prices: In terms of inventory, warehouse receipts for designated delivery warehouses continue to increase by 107 tons to 1,247 tons. The temporary increase in inventory is hard to say. The spot side is still tight, and the trend of destocking in the peak consumption season is still Will continue; LME tin stocks are maintained at around 1,180 tons, and current stocks are still at a low level. In terms of spot, the average price of 1# tin in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market was 277,500 yuan, which continued to increase, slightly higher than the settlement price of the futures in recent months. In terms of tin ingot output, China’s refined tin output in August was 14,210 tons, an increase of 49.57% month-on-month and an increase of 8.47% year-on-year; the output increased sharply in August, mainly because a large smelter in Yunnan completed the overhaul and resumed production. At the same time, the tin concentrate processing fee was The increase was also a factor that stimulated the increase in output of smelters; while smelters in Guangxi were affected by power cuts, and their output declined significantly in August. In August, the import of tin concentrate decreased by 3% month-on-month, and the import and export of refined tin both dropped. Under the two-carbon policy, dual control policies such as Yunnan and Guangxi have been introduced one after another, which is positive for the price of non-ferrous tin. In terms of negative factors, Yunxi has resumed production, but still has not alleviated the shortage of tin spot. We need to pay attention to the recovery of production; the msc refinery in Malaysia is resuming production, the contradiction between overseas supply and demand is alleviating, and the premium for overseas spot tin prices has fallen sharply.
[Trading strategy]The domestic fundamentals have not undergone a trend change, and the actual impact of power rationing and production reduction is still relatively large. The resumption of production of Yunxi and Huaxi needs further observation on the relief of the shortage of spot goods; the supply and demand pattern of tin market is still in short supply, so Shanghai tin supply and demand fundamentals If there is no trend change, Shanghai Tin will maintain a strong view, and it is more likely to continue to set new historical highs. It is still not recommended to go short at present. The first support below is the 10-day moving average of 259,000 and the 20-day moving average of 251,700. Continue to pay attention to the production capacity problems of Yunxi and Huaxi after the resumption of production. The tightness on the spot side has not been significantly eased, and the price of tin is difficult to fall sharply. There is still room for upward growth. Use the futures market to facilitate spot purchases.
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