MILANO – 9:25 am. There seems to be a bit of calm on the financial markets, after a period of sharp correction linked to the monetary tightening of the central banks due to inflation and the fear that these will lead to a slowdown of the economies up to a possible recession. Fear written in black and white by analysts at Goldman Sachs, for whom the risk of a US recession is higher, indicated at 48% (from the previous 35%) over the next two years. For the investment bank, the growth forecast of 2.8% for the second quarter of the year remains unchanged, but the one from the third quarter to the first quarter of 2023 falls, now forecasting a 1.75% growth in the 0.75% and 1%, respectively, in each of these quarters.
Despite these indications, European equities are moving positively after Asian equities broke a streak that had lasted for eight sessions. Milano it rises by 1.1% with Leonardo in evidence after the announcement of the merger of the American subsidiary Drs with Rada, with subsequent listing on the Nasdaq. Frankfurt salt of 1.2%, Paris 1.6% while London adds 0.6%.
Lo spread opens slightly down. On the platform Bloomberg, the differential between BTPs and German Bunds is expected to be 193 basis points, with the ten-year yield at 3.6%. Yesterday, the president of the ECB Christine Lagarde confirmed the reinvestment of the securities and the commitment of the Eurotower against the risk of fragmentation. L’euro opens stable on the dollar, is trading at 1.0518 on the greenback. Today speaking, from the Mediobanca ceo conference, was the president of the Supervision of the ECB, Andrea Enria, for which the stop of the dividends of the banks in 2020 was “an exceptional decision taken in an unprecedented context” of the Covid pandemic, but “we do not intend to do it yet”. As for rates, their increase “is a positive development for the European financial sector”.
Eastern trade was mainly driven by earnings from real estate companies, which in turn benefited from the sector’s positive data suggesting that China is heading towards an economic recovery. However, analysts said the housing market recovery will be slow and are monitoring further data to see if the rebound can be sustainable. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.5%, with financial and technology stocks among the largest contributors to its rise. In the end, the overall balance was positive, but the individual squares were mixed: a Tokyo the Nikkei rose 1.84% to 26,246.31 points and the Topix by 2.05% to 1,856.20 points. The Composite Index of Shanghai drops 0.26% to 3,306.72 points e Shenzhen 0.51%, to 2,147.29. Hong Kong runs by 1.64%, Only it advanced by 0.75% to 2.408.93 points. “It’s a respite, not a rebound,” says one manager to theAnsa inviting us not to give in to euphoria. “We are still in a bear market that is facing a double whammy of Fed tightening and recession fears, and the second quarter earnings season is likely to be particularly painful for the markets” due to cost pressures, he adds.
Contracts on Wall Street they point upwards after the US lists were closed yesterday for the ‘Juneteenth holiday’, a holiday that commemorates the liberation of African-American slaves. Early in the morning, the forecasts for the opening of the three main indices are around + 1.5%.
The energy front also recorded some signs of recovery: the prices of Petroleum they move higher on the Asian markets, while remaining close to the lows in almost five weeks: worries about the slowdown in global economic growth and fuel demand have offset expectations of higher consumption in the short term. Brent changed hands at 115.50 dollars a barrel, with a growth of + 1.2%, while Wti was sold at 111.52 dollars, gaining + 1.79%.