The upward trend has slowed down, and the price of urea futures fluctuated at a high level | Urea_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Everbright Futures Author: Everbright Futures

Research report text

【Urea】

Comments:

The price of urea futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday, and the upward trend has slowed down. The closing price of the main contract was 2,654 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.4%. The spot market continues to operate strongly, prices in various regions have been raised by 30-40 yuan/ton, and high-end transactions in some mainstream regions have exceeded 2,750 yuan/ton.

From the perspective of the supply side, some plants in Shanxi have recently resumed production, gas head enterprises are expected to strengthen their maintenance, and the utilization rate of urea production capacity is hovering around 65.14%. The demand for new orders can still be traded, and the tight supply of some manufacturers reappears. In addition, the current market is supported by industrial rigid demand and agricultural reserves, coupled with the market atmosphere, it is expected that the spot market will continue to operate strongly. The urea futures market will continue to maintain a strong operation, and the long-term hedging strategy is still applicable, but it is necessary to be alert to the risk of falling from a high level.

View:

Run strong, be wary of the risk of falling back.

【soda ash】

Comments:

Yesterday, the price of soda ash futures maintained a strong volatile trend. The closing price of the main contract was 2,660 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.1%. The quotations of spot companies are stable, and individual prices are raised by 30-50 yuan/ton in a narrow range. At present, there is no new maintenance plan in the soda ash market, and the operating rate of the industry fluctuates slightly to 90.71%. However, the current order support of alkali plants is strong, the balance of production and sales of enterprises continues to be maintained, and the low inventory level supports the mentality of manufacturers to hold up prices. The shortage of vehicles in Northwest China and the increase in inventory of individual enterprises have also limited the supply of goods in mainstream sales areas.

On the whole, the current pattern of high supply, low inventory, and stable demand in the soda ash market continues to maintain, and the spot market is relatively strong. In the futures market, the economic recovery, the strengthening of the building materials sector,GlassUnder the influence of factors such as the rebound of futures prices at low levels, they continue to maintain a positive upward state, and continue to be treated with a strong shock within the day, but the current price is not suitable for further chasing higher, and we need to be alert to the risk of a fall caused by the departure of funds.

View:

Strong shock

2. Market information

Urea:

1. On December 13, the spot price of urea in various regions in China (yuan/ton): 2770-2780 in Linyi, Shandong; 2760-2770 in Heze; 2730-2770 in Shijiazhuang, Hebei; The mainstream references for small and medium-sized particle transportation are 2650-2740.

2. On December 13, the capacity utilization rate of the urea industry was 65.14%, which was 66.16% on the previous working day.

soda ash:

1. On December 13, the spot price of heavy soda ash in various regions in China (yuan/ton): 2850 in North China; 2700 in Central China; 2750 in East China; 2380 in Qinghai, all stable compared with the previous working day .

2. On December 13, the operating rate of the domestic soda ash industry was 90.71%, 91.15% on the previous working day, and the daily loss was 8,900 tons, which was 8,400 tons on the previous working day.

3. On December 13, the average price of the national float glass market was 1,570 yuan/ton, a day-to-day increase of 0.19%.

3. Chart Analysis

Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.