Caixie News, August 29, the major indexes all rose this Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.77% throughout the week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.29%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.01%. In August, there are only two trading days. How will the market outlook for A shares be interpreted? CITIC Securities believes that A shares will usher in the best window for the layout of the fourth quarter market in September; Haitong Securities believes that the current bull market has not changed. Prior to this, both strong and weak industries will show performance; the monarch strategy pointed out that the market is returning to the upward channel, and profitability determines the direction of differentiation.
CITIC Securities: A-shares will usher in the best window for the layout of the fourth quarter market in September
The strategy of CITIC Securities predicts that the domestic economy will be repaired month by month after it bottoms out in August. Policy corrections and public opinion norms will help improve risk appetite, and credit risks will be released in an orderly manner. A-shares will usher in the highest layout in the fourth quarter of the market in September. Good window, it is recommended to adhere to the balanced allocation of growth value, and strengthen the left-hand layout of the value sector.
In terms of configuration, it is expected that the focus of the market will continue to shift from growth to value in September. We still recommend that we maintain a balance between growth manufacturing and value consumption, and consider the left-side layout of consumption and medicine, and look for positive expectations for subdivided tracks. There are two directions in the specific configuration ideas: 1) The growth manufacturing sector needs to pay more attention to the matching degree of valuation and profitability. It is recommended that the third-quarter performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations in the middle and upper reaches of the machinery, military, and chemical industries; 2) the left side Deploying high-prosperity consumer and pharmaceuticals in the value segment, especially sub-sectors that are in good operating conditions but have been greatly adjusted by trading or policy factors in the early stage, recommend sub-high-end liquor, service robots, vaccines, and Hong Kong stocks’ beer and apparel leaders.
Monarch Strategy: The market is returning to the upward channel
In the process of adjustment and rebound, positive signals are gradually forming: Although economic momentum is weakening and molecular profitability is under pressure, as risk appetite stabilizes and risk-free interest rates are superimposed on the downward trend, the market is returning to the upward channel.
Industry allocation: Loose support for valuation, and profitability determines the direction of differentiation. As the fourth quarter of 2021, with the weakening of market earnings growth, the relative advantages of new energy and semiconductor earnings will become more prominent. But under crowded transactions, technological growth is not all. Industry recommendations: 1) Loose expectations and marginal improvement in fundamentals: brokerage (Guangfa Securities)/Bank (Sunong Bank); 2) New energy infrastructure (BIPV/UHV/wind power/charging piles); 3) Upward industry cycle: photovoltaics (Daquan Energy/JAA Technology)/Xin Energy Vehicle (Ganfeng Lithium)/Semiconductor Equipment; 4) Among the cyclical growth varieties with excellent profit valuation and cost-effectiveness, the medium-term stable supply and demand is preferred: glass/soda ash/steel (Hualing Steel)/tires, etc.
Huaan Securities: Growth performance is expected to continue to dominate, pay attention to the disturbance of risk appetite
Huaan Securities believes that the impact of policy has brought high volatility. In September, it adhered to the dual main line of growth + cycle, and looked for high prosperity support within the growth and cycle. ① Looking at the August review, the two main pushes of the growth + cycle main line performance have diverged, but the internal structure level still highlights the growth attributes. ②With the weakening of the policy impact and the release of interim results, the performance of the high-prosperity sector maintains a high growth rate and has a comparative advantage, and the growth sector still has the core support of the fundamentals. ③The liquidity is likely to maintain a reasonable and abundant stage, and still pay attention to profit rather than valuation. Therefore, focus on two main lines with profitable advantages: main line 1: growth sector, the semiconductor and new energy vehicle industry chain with an absolute high boom; main line 2: cyclical sector, high boom aluminum, phosphorous chemicals and organic chemicals in the chemical industry. Silicon, benefiting from the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in the general automatic equipment sector. In addition, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of the banking sector under the disturbance of risk appetite.
Haitong Securities: The big pattern of this round of bull market has not changed
Haitong strategist Xun Yugen and others said on the 29th that the big pattern of this round of bull market has not changed, and historical experience shows that as the bull market reaches its later stage, both the previous strong and weak industries will perform, that is, the bull market will converge with the public. . In terms of macro and micro fundamentals and statistical laws, the market has opportunities to take into account smart manufacturing and traditional mid- and downstream manufacturing, and pay attention to low-lying industries such as brokerages.
GF strategy: maintain the configuration idea of looking for small-cap growth point-like diffusion
The Daikang team of Guangfa Strategy pointed out that the A-share market will become more differentiated in 2021, and the overall average yield will drop significantly compared with the past two years. Based on looser narrow liquidity, A-shares have no systemic risks, and the structure is more important than the general trend. The current market microstructure is still not healthy. We maintain the allocation strategy of looking for small-cap growth points. It coincides with the disclosure period of the interim report. We recommend Make full use of “net profit gap strategy” and “specialization, special new” theme ideas to select sinking market value stocks, supplemented by some upstream small-cap value varieties that continue to benefit from price increases.
Continue to deploy “market value sinking”—(1) “policy + technology + supply and demand gap” multi-wheel drive new energy vehicles (lithium mine/lithium battery materials)/photovoltaic; (2) economic growth and cost-effective growth and proliferation (military industry) (3) Upstream varieties (cement/fertilizer) that continue to benefit from price increases or cost suppression and easing + marginal changes in demand.
Prosperity Strategy: Continue to grasp the core lines of high-quality growth represented by “specialization, special innovation” and “little giants” of science and technology innovation
Zhang Yidong’s research paper pointed out that the strategy of China Industrial Securities is to embrace the long-term, embrace the general direction, and strive for the long-term and the short-term. Continue to grasp the core lines of high-quality growth represented by “specialization, special innovation” and “little giants” of science and technology innovation. Configuration level: Growth is still the core of the recommendation, but more attention is paid to cost performance, and more attention is paid to the direction and individual stocks with better odds. Including: 1) Long-term cost-effective “small and beautiful”, “specialized and new” and “little giant” of science and technology innovation; 2) aluminum and copper that serve the needs of science and technology innovation, have new growth logic, and embrace new technology empowerment , Chemical, cement, securities companies and other sectors. 3) Those areas where the fundamentals are not very bright, the assets that have a turnaround in the second half of the year are arranged ahead of time, and the direction of “new infrastructure” for steady growth, including small home appliances, automobiles, machinery, and the “Longyi” of consumer sub-sectors. Based on the long-term and embracing the core assets of the future, in the era of registration system, you can focus on the following directions to pan for small gold science and innovation giants: 1) high-end manufacturing (semiconductor industry chain, military industry chain, etc.), 2) new energy chain (new energy materials, Lithium battery equipment, new energy vehicle industry chain, intelligent driving, etc.), 3) AIoT (computers, communications, electronics), 4) life sciences (biomedicine, medical equipment, medical services, seeds, etc.).
Anxin strategy: Ning’s portfolio + small and medium-sized caps are still the main line, and the new energy cycle is preferred for the allocation cycle
Anxin’s strategy team stated on August 29 that the asset shortage is currently the biggest reality, and the structure will continue. In the next six months to one year, China’s monetary easing is expected to exceed expectations. It is a rational choice to find structural opportunities in the stock market. Adjustment is an opportunity. Adhering to the Ning combination + medium and small cap (such as specialization, special new combination, etc.) is the core configuration unchanged. In the medium term, the proportion of mass consumption in the organization will increase, but the recovery of the economy will require a process.
CICC strategy: short-term allocation is balanced, and the mid-line style is still growing
The configuration suggestions given by CICC Wang Hanfeng: The configuration is balanced, and the mid-line style is still growing.
1) Highly prosperous, China’s already competitive or growing industrial chain: electric vehicle industrial chain, photovoltaics, technological hardware and software, electronic semiconductors, some manufacturing capital goods, etc. The valuation is getting higher and short-term volatility is increasing. If there is a significant adjustment in the near future, it can absorb on dips; 2) Pan-consumer industries: in pan-consumer, including daily necessities, home appliances, automobiles and parts, medicines and medical equipment, light industrial homes, etc. Select stocks from the bottom up in the field; 3) Gradually reduce the cycle allocation but focus on some cycles with favorable structure or structural growth characteristics: non-ferrous metals such as lithium, chemical industry, and financial leaders benefiting from the general development trend of wealth and asset management. Focus on themes such as “old white horse” stocks with more callbacks and attractive valuations, as well as “specialization, special newness” and other topics.
West China Strategy: The golden autumn market is slowly unfolding, and the growth market will continue
Li Lifeng, chief strategy of Huaxi Securities, believes that the dovish signal released by the Federal Reserve at the annual meeting of global central banks has given the market “reassurance”, and it is expected that overseas policies will have limited domestic impact. At the end of the month, the central bank took action to maintain capital stability. With counter-cyclical policy adjustments and structural lenient credit enhancements, the lenient currency pattern is expected to be maintained, which will help the market risk-free interest rate decline. In terms of style, its core factor still lies in its relative advantage in profitability. Specifically, the recent valuation of the consumer sector has continued to decrease, and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will be followed by the peak consumption season. The follow-up needs to focus on the pace of restoration of the fundamentals of the consumer sector. Under the framework of policy inter-cyclical adjustments, current policies are more “supportive”. Without lifting”, the boost to traditional infrastructure (pro-cyclical) may be slower. From the perspective of corporate reports, policies and industry trends, the growth track is still in a high level of prosperity. The direction of hard technology and new energy, including “specialized, special new” small and medium-sized market capitalization companies, is still the focus of the market outlook.
It is recommended to pay attention to the industry configuration: “new energy industry chain (electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, etc.), semiconductors, military industry”, etc.; thematic investment concerns: “carbon neutral (green industry) connotation expansion, new infrastructure (intelligent transportation, etc.), Hongmeng main line, brokerage sector (partial wealth management theme)”.
Southwest strategy: optimistic about military industry, new energy vehicles, resources and shipping sectors
The latest report of Southwest Securities Strategy stated that the interim report is about to be completed, and the performance of various industries is very different, and the market opportunities are still in those booming tracks. Specifically, the military’s work is hard technology, and the high degree of prosperity is constantly being verified. The current valuation and performance match are reasonable, which makes the deployment of military industry more necessary. 2) The development of the new energy automobile industry has entered a period of non-linear acceleration. The penetration rate has accelerated, and the growth of downstream sales has driven the rapid explosion of demand in the upstream and midstream industrial chains. 3) The mismatch of supply and demand of upstream resources is expected to continue. Under the background of “dual carbon” + epidemic situation, the expansion of the supply side is still limited, economic recovery + energy transformation, downstream demand is strong, and the resource sector continues to usher in the long-term prosperity due to the mismatch of supply and demand cycle. 4) The global shipbuilding industry has ushered in a new round of upward cycle, with both volume and price rising and the boom is high.