Original title: GoldsilverGoing through a “horrified moment”!US ADP Private Employment Data Strong Fed Officials Released “Eagle Pigeon” Fuzzy Signal
FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) reported that after gold and silver fell deep overnight, the Asian market today is in a state of consolidation and respite in early trading. The monthly data released by the American Automatic Data Processing Institute (ADP) on Thursday showed that the number of private sector employment in the United States increased by 978,000 in May, compared with 654,000 in April, and 742,000 before the revision, which is better than market expectations of 650,000 U.S. dollars. Inflation worries came into view again, and the dollar rose slightly after the news. Robert Kaplan, President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, once again released a mixed signal of hawks and doves, prompting the US dollar market to respond with little volatility and a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson (Nela Richardson) pointed out that private employment data has improved significantly compared with recent months, and it is the strongest growth since the beginning of the recovery. Although commodity manufacturers are growing steadily, service providers have contributed the largest share of the growth, far exceeding the average growth rate over the past six months. Companies of all sizes have experienced job growth, reflecting the nature of the epidemic and the improvement of the economy.
Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, said that the US economic supply problems may be structural, and monetary policy is not prepared for how to deal with these problems. He said: “The imbalance between the supply and demand of materials and labor poses a challenge. It is expected that more people will return to the labor market after the unemployment benefit is over. Complaints from employers about recruitment difficulties are worthy of attention. Relax monetary policy.”
He also reiterated his preference for the Fed to adjust its policy sooner rather than later, adding: “The benefit of U.S. economic spending looks very strong. Now the initiative is in the hands of workers, who can wait for better jobs because of unemployment benefits. The economy. Substantial progress means that there is evidence that we have passed the current COVID-19 pandemic. We began to discuss the importance of adjusting the scale of asset purchases. I don’t think the real estate market needs the current level of support provided by the Federal Reserve. From the real estate market Look, it is useful to discuss the Fed’s mortgage-backed securities. It is wrong to formulate a fiscal policy that relies heavily on the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency.”
Looking at the important global data, the Eurozone service industry PMI (final value) forecast for May is 55.1, the current value is 55.2, and the predecessor is 55.1. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States is predicted to be 388,000, with a current value of 385,000 and a pre-requisite of 406,000. ADP employment change forecast is 650,000, the present value is 978,000, and the previous value is 742,000. The present value of China’s Caixin service industry PMI in May was 55.1, with a predecessor of 56.3. The US manufacturing economic activity continued to expand at a strong pace in May. The May Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of IHS Markit rose from 60.5 to 62.1, and the ISM manufacturing PMI rose from 60.7 to 61.2.
Wells Fargo analysts pointed out that service industry activity has never been stronger and more extensive. They warned that as the reopening of the service industry has entered an accelerated phase, demand is surpassing scarce supply, pushing the price of payment items to the second-highest level in history.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced on May 13 that, in most cases, the fully vaccinated population does not need to wear masks. Since then, the reopening of the service industry economy in mid-May entered an accelerated process. Wells Fargo analysts expect that service-related spending will surge this summer. This milestone is good news, but the surge in demand will further extend the waiting time for delivery.
An analyst from Wells Fargo said: “One of the factors that have caused pressure to rise is the continuing challenge of re-staffing staff after the epidemic. The employment index fell by 3.5 points, and the employment index of 55.3 seems to be inconsistent with the indicators of active activities and orders. Just like manufacturing. The Beige Book issued by the industry and the Federal Reserve reflect that if companies can find more workers, recruitment will be stronger.”
As of 08:23 Hong Kong time before the deadline, the decline of gold after the deep decline converged to 1.97% to US$1,870.10; the decline of silver after the deep decline converged to 2.69% to US$27.41; the US dollar index rose by 0.04% to 90.525, which means Restore to the 90th threshold to walk above.
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