The brief revolt of the mercenaries of the Wagner led by Evgeny Prigozhinreturned thanks to the mediation of the Belarusian president Lukashenko, is a useful pretext for deepening the theme of theinfluence of Russia on the African continent, in particular precisely through Prigozhin’s private army which operates in various states and contexts of crisis.
A relationship that puts Africa in the position of being able to promote its own mediator role in the conflict that arose from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the purpose of the mission of an African delegation to Russia and Ukraine, conducted a few weeks ago and led by the South African president Cyril Ramaphosa. BBC Afrique writes about it: neither of the two interlocutors has given their willingness to start peace talks, but the South African leader nonetheless speaks in a positive tone of the trip, defining it as “the first time that African leaders have undertaken a mission of peace abroad”.
The collapse of aid to Africa
But the impact of the conflict in Ukraine is also measured through the reduction of public aid to development destined for the African continent, as Laurence Caramel writes in Le Monde Afrique. In fact, OECD data for 2022 show that, despite a 13.6% increase in support globally (up to $204 billion), sub-Saharan Africa has seen the aid reserved for it decrease by 7.8%up to $29.7 billion.
A disengagement that had already been denounced by African countries at the last meeting of International Monetary Fund and of World Bank, says La Libre Afrique. “You see these immense flows that were thought impossible to find, and which are being disbursed today,” Niger’s Foreign Minister Hassoumi Massoudou confided to AFP. Proof, according to him, that “there are resources and mechanisms» which could also be used for the African continent.
The role of Russia on the continent
BBC Afrique also devotes extensive reflection to the role that the Russia has managed over time to carve out in what were the colonies of the “Françafrique”. “Russia comes with a packet all in one: it offers security services, political advice, media and disinformation campaigns and arms sales,” explains Paul Stronski, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. But Russia’s interests are not limited to French-speaking Africa: Wagner’s presence is also certified in Libya, and some kind of activity of Prigozhin’s group can also be registered in Sudan, Eritrea and Zimbabwe. I am at least eight the African countries in which Wagner is involved.
Finally, an excellent dossier from the Center d’Études Stratégiques de l’Afrique is also available on this issue, which explores, for example, the diffusion of disinformation in the information ecosystems in Africa, which Russia, China and the Gulf states have mainly taken advantage of; and the role of Russian private militias like Wagner in the destabilization of the countries in which it operates and in the strengthening of the relative authoritarian and illiberal contexts.
Cover photo EPA/YURI KOCHETKOV