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Original title: This year’s ST sector will “turn over”? The ST stock index has outperformed the Shanghai Stock Index by more than 30 percentage points, and nearly 20 stocks have doubled. There are 3 major anomalies behind the “speculation boom”!
With the gradual implementation of the registration system for A shares, the shell resource value of ST shares has shrunk sharply. For example, the ST shares index (861019) has fallen for 4 consecutive years from 2017 to 2020, clearly underperforming other sector indexes. However, this year, the ST sector seems to usher in an opportunity to “turn over”.
According to statistics, as of the close of today (July 8), the ST stock index has risen 38% this year, even the strongestGrowth Enterprise Market IndexAlso willing to bow down.Over the past year, 18 ST stocks have experienced cumulative gains of more than 100%; among them, the top two gainers*ST Zhongtai、*ST Tiancheng(Human Rights Protection) The cumulative increase this year has exceeded 300%. Some ST companies have even staged a “good show” of daily limit for more than 20 consecutive trading days.
Although the market’s enthusiasm for ST stocks this year has a certain “logic”, the reporter of “Daily Business News” noted that the major anomalies that emerged behind this round of “speculation fever” are still worth paying attention to. For example, some ST companies Although the so-called reorganization and backdoor rumors have been clarified many times, the company’s stock price has continued to rise.
However, a group of ST companies that have been put on the *ST hat for the first time this year and have a greater risk of delisting next year have still shown an overall trend of being abandoned by the market this year.
ST sector leads the market this year
ST stock index annual K line
Screenshot from: Choice data
With the gradual implementation of the registration system for A-shares, the overall shell resource value of ST-shares has shown a significant shrinking trend in recent years. For example, the ST-share index has fallen for 4 consecutive years from 2017 to 2020, clearly underperforming other sector indexes.
According to statistics from Choice, as of the end of last year, nearly 50 stocks in the ST sector have become one-yuan stocks, and many ST stocks are struggling to the edge of the one-yuan delisting line.
However, this year, the ST sector has ushered in the opportunity to “turn over”. As of today’s close, the ST stock index has risen 38% this year, not only outperforming the major A-share indexes, but also the strongest ChiNext index (the ChiNext index has risen 15.7% this year).
In terms of individual stocks, 18 ST stocks have experienced a cumulative increase of more than 100% this year; among them, the top two gainers *ST Zhongtai and *ST Tiancheng have achieved a cumulative increase of more than 300% this year.
Screenshot from: Choice data
Some ST companies have even staged continuous daily limit performances recently. For example, since mid-April this year,ST Baling(Human Rights Protection) It has experienced three consecutive waves of daily limit, especially since June this year, in just over a month, it has experienced nearly 20 daily limit.
*ST Tiancheng’s recent daily limit performance is even more astonishing. Since May 24, the company’s stock price has achieved the daily limit for 25 consecutive trading days.
In contrast, a group of White Horse stocks that have been sought after by the market for many years have clearly underperformed ST stocks this year.such asVanke A、Conch Cement、Huayu AutomobileThe cumulative decline this year has exceeded 10%, andGree Electric、Ping An of China、Midea Group、SF Holdings、Hengrui Medicine、Sany Heavy IndustryThe cumulative decline this year has exceeded 20%.
The anomaly that emerges behind the “hype fever”
Regarding the sudden rise in the ST sector market this year, Shanghai Jinyu Assets Fund Manager Zhao Tong analyzed that there are three main reasons. First, the ST sector has clearly underperformed the overall market in the past few years; secondly, the stock prices of individual ST companies have soared this year, such as *ST Zhongtai, ST is willing (on May 19 this year, “ST willing” was changed to “Willing to wine industry(Rights protection)”), etc., to a certain extent, drove the popularity of the ST sector; this year’s overall hype on small-cap stocks is higher than in previous years.
In addition, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the new delisting regulations, the financial delisting risk warning situation, delisting indicators, and newly-added major illegal delisting indicators are all based on 2020 as the first year of calculation. Therefore, some of the original *ST companies that should be suspended from listing according to the original rules this year will continue to “lack” in the market this year.
Although the market’s enthusiasm for ST stocks this year has some “logic”, the reporter of “Daily Economic News” noticed that several major anomalies that emerged behind this round of “speculation fever” are still worthy of attention:
Vision 1: The reorganization is still full of variables, and the stock price has risen sharply first
The sharp rise of some ST companies this year is mainly due to the so-called restructuring expectations. For example, the top gainers in the ST sector this year *ST Zhongtai, *ST Tiancheng and other stocks have their own restructuring rumors. However, judging from the public information, these so-called reorganization rumors still have a great deal of uncertainty.
For example, this round of *ST Tiancheng’s continuous daily limit has always been accompanied by rumors that the company may be “backdoored by wine companies”. However, this rumor has been clarified in multiple announcements issued by *ST Tiancheng since June this year.
On June 4 this year, *ST Tiancheng issued an announcement stating: After the company’s written letter certifying the controlling shareholder and actual controller, the controlling shareholder and actual controller replies to a letter clearly stating that there is no “backdoor” or “restructuring” related to the existence of any wine company. “Negotiations or negotiations and other related behaviors. In the announcement issued by the company on July 7, it was again stated that the company was not involved in “backdoor” or “reorganization” with wine companies.
But even so, in the last month, *ST Tiancheng’s stock price still went out of the continuous daily limit regardless of the price.
*ST Zhongtai is currently facing bankruptcy and reorganization. At the end of last year, *ST Zotye signed the “Confidentiality Agreement” with Shanghai Zhiyang and Hunan Zhibo, but so far, Shanghai Zhiyang and Hunan Zhibo have successively announced the suspension of advancement and termination of investment matters. This undoubtedly adds a lot of variables to *ST Zotye’s reorganization process.
In addition, there have been rumors that one of Tesla, Xiaomi, Weilai and Baoneng may eventually take over *ST Zotye. However, in this regard, the company has mentioned in the announcement on April 7, 2021 that “After verification with the company’s pre-reorganization manager, Zhejiang Jingheng Law Firm, Tesla, Xiaomi, Weilai and Baoneng are not ” The counterparty of the relevant agreement mentioned in the Announcement of Zotye Automobile Co., Ltd. on the Progress of Public Recruitment of Investors. The company has not had relevant discussions or signed a cooperation agreement with it.”
Screenshot from: Snowball
However, even so, some investors still post on some online platforms with high traffic, insisting that these clarifications of the company are “clarifications but not clear” and that the company’s reorganization will eventually succeed. Under such dim expectations, the stock price of *ST Zotye has risen sharply by more than 300% this year.
However, it should be pointed out that if this reorganization fails, there will be a risk of being declared bankrupt. If the company is declared bankrupt, the company’s shares will face the risk of being terminated from listing in accordance with Article 14.4.17 (6) of the “Stock Listing Rules”.
Vision 2: While being warned of risks, the stock price soared
This year, *ST Tiancheng, which has been enjoying a lot of glory this year, is actually facing the risk of investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission. On July 8, 2020, the company and related parties received an “Investigation Notice” from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure. As of now, the investigation is still in progress.
In addition, since May this year, the company has stated in the announcement more than 10 times that if the company is subject to administrative penalties by the Securities Regulatory Commission for investigation matters, and the facts determined based on the administrative penalties decision, it has violated the provisions of the “Shanghai Stock Exchange Stock Listing Rules”. In the event of a major illegal compulsory delisting, the company’s stocks will face the risk of a major illegal compulsory delisting. However, such frequent warning risks still do not hinder the stock price of ST Tiancheng since late May this year.
It is worth mentioning that the company has also issued an audit report that “cannot express an opinion” because of the fiscal year 2020 financial report, and the audited net assets at the end of the most recent fiscal year are negative, which has been implemented since May 6. Delisting risk warning”. If *ST Tiancheng’s relevant business indicators still fail to meet the standards in 2021, the company may face direct delisting next year.
*ST UniversalDue to factors such as poor quality of information disclosure, the company has received letters of inquiry and supervisory work from the Shanghai Stock Exchange many times this year. However, the company has repeatedly delayed reply to these regulatory documents. According to statistics from Choice, the company has announced 14 times this year that it will postpone reply to various inquiry letters and supervisory work letters from the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
On June 1 this year, *ST Global announced that it received the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s “Inquiry Letter on Information Disclosure Supervision on the 2020 Annual Report of Shangying Global Co., Ltd.”, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange required *ST Global to respond within 5 trading days. However, the company’s response to the inquiry letter has been delayed again and again. Up to now, *ST Global has issued 5 postponed response announcements.
However, despite this, *ST Global has delayed responding to the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s inquiry letter while the stock price continues to rise. Since June this year, the stock price of *ST Global has risen by 52.5%; the company’s stock price has risen by 137% this year.
Vision 3: Hot money is frequently driven behind the ST stock boom
According to statistics from Choice, in only half a year or so this year, the total number of times on the list of all ST companies has been 973, while the number for the whole of last year was only 1,193.
It can be seen that under the background that most mainstream institutions, such as public funds, block ST companies in the stock pool, this year’s “speculation fever” is indispensable with the promotion of hot money from various business departments.
From the perspective of some ST companies that have been the top gainers this year, hot money from all walks of life is even more frequent. For example, *ST Zotye has been on the Dragon and Tiger List for a total of 24 times this year, but only 7 times last year; *ST Tiancheng has been on the Dragon and Tiger List for a total of 8 times this year, but only 2 times last year;*ST energy saving(Human rights protection) This year, the Dragon and Tiger rankings have been on the list 20 times in total, compared with only 7 times in the whole year of last year;*ST Hemei(Human Rights Protection) This year, the Dragon and Tiger List has been on the list 15 times in total, compared with only 8 times in the whole year of last year.
Shanghai Stock Exchange Supervises * ST Tiancheng Abnormal Transaction
Regarding the phenomenon that some ST companies have been speculated in the market this year, Dong Dengxin, director of the Institute of Financial Securities of Wuhan University of Science and Technology, said in an interview with reporters that after the reform of the registration system, the shell resources of junk stocks will become less and less valuable. This is the general trend, so the current market The hype on ST stocks is only temporary and cannot exist for a long time. The China Securities Regulatory Commission recently stated that it is necessary to strictly prevent the use of capital market violations to “make wealth.” Such phenomena as spamming junk stocks and using inside information for insider trading to manipulate stock prices will become targets for cracking down on securities violations and crimes.
“Therefore, I believe that in the near future, these junk stocks (ST stocks) will still return to the one-dollar delisting channel. I believe that temporary speculation will not last, and the final result will soon be revealed.” Dong Dengxin pointed out.
Screenshot from: Shanghai Stock Exchange
At around 5 o’clock this afternoon, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice on the abnormal fluctuations in the trading of “*ST Tiancheng” stocks. According to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, in response to the recent trading of *ST Tiancheng stocks, the company has repeatedly issued announcements on abnormal trading fluctuations, prompting risks. In the process of trading the stock, individual investors had abnormal trading behaviors that affected the normal trading order of the market and misled the trading decisions of small and medium investors, such as raising the opening price, maintaining the price limit, and so on. The Shanghai Stock Exchange imposed suspension of account transactions on relevant investors in accordance with regulations, etc. Self-regulatory measures.
In this regard, some market participants told reporters that the reason why *ST Tiancheng’s recent stock price is so crazy is estimated to be related to the joint venture of some investors. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has adopted regulatory measures after discovering it. It is expected that the regulatory agencies will crack down on such irrational speculation in the future. Will be strengthened.
*ST company, which was wearing a hat for the first time this year, was abandoned by the market
When the draft of the new delisting regulations was released in December last year,Industrial SecuritiesThe strategy team once issued a comment saying that the regulatory authorities implemented strict delisting of companies with financial violations and long-term performance losses through multiple dimensions. The perfect delisting system will not only help protect the interests of small and medium investors, but also help regulate investor behavior. , To prevent “bad money expelling good money”, and stifle the distorting resource allocation behaviors such as speculation, speculation, and speculation of ST in the cradle.
According to the new delisting regulations implemented this year, the financial delisting time has been reduced from the original three years to two years. Delisting indicators will be issued a delisting risk warning when the delisting indicators are touched in 1 year, and the delisting indicators will be terminated directly when the delisting indicators are touched for 2 consecutive years. The speed and efficiency of listing and delisting have been greatly improved compared with before. In addition, the new delisting regulations also canceled the suspension and resumption of listing.
For many companies that have been listed on *ST for the first time this year, if they still hit the delisting target next year, then they will be directly delisted.
According to statistics from Choice, there are 40 A-share companies that have been put on the *ST hat for the first time this year. Most of these companies have clearly indicated the risks of the company’s stocks being delisted in their announcements about the delisting risk warnings issued by the company’s stocks.
For example, according to the “Shenzhen Stock Exchange Stock Listing Rules (Revised in 2020)”, after a listed company is subject to a delisting risk warning due to the circumstances specified in the Stock Listing Rules (Revised in 2020), the following situations occurred in the first fiscal year For one, the exchange will decide to terminate the listing and trading of its stocks:
(1) The audited net profit is negative and the operating income is less than 100 million yuan, or the net profit in the most recent fiscal year after retrospective restatement is negative and the operating income is less than 100 million yuan;
(2) The audited net assets at the end of the period are negative, or the net assets at the end of the most recent fiscal year after retrospective restatement are negative;
(3) Audit reports in which the financial accounting report has been issued with qualified opinions, cannot express opinions, or have negative opinions;
(4) Failing to disclose the true, accurate and complete annual report of more than half of the directors within the statutory time limit;
(5) Although it meets the conditions specified in Article 14.3.7, it fails to apply to the Exchange for the withdrawal of the delisting risk warning within the prescribed time limit;
(6) The application for revocation of the delisting risk warning has not been reviewed and approved by the Exchange because it does not meet the conditions specified in Article 14.3.7. If one of the aforementioned six situations occurs in the company in 2021, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange will decide to terminate the listing of the company’s shares. Investors are kindly requested to pay attention to investment risks.
According to statistics from Choice, the above 40 A-share companies that have been put on the *ST hat for the first time this year and have a greater risk of delisting next year’s overall performance this year are significantly weaker than the ST-share index. As of today’s close, some of them 33 companies have experienced declines this year, and 16 companies have experienced a cumulative decline of more than 30%.
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Editor in charge: Zhang Shuyuan
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