Zhuo Chuang Information: International crude oil rises to two-year high, refined oil retail prices open a window for upward adjustment

Summary

[Zhuochuang Information: International crude oil has risen to a two-year high and the retail price of refined oil opens an upward adjustment window]According to the current pricing mechanism of refined oil, the rate of change of crude oil is within a positive range of fluctuations, and this round of refined oil retail prices will open an upward adjustment window. According to the calculation of Zhuochuang Information Data Monitoring Model, as of the close of June 7, the domestic reference crude oil change rate was 3.31% on the seventh working day, corresponding to an increase of 140 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, and the price adjustment window was 24:00 on June 11. (Zhuochuang Information)

Topic selection background: In this round of pricing cycle, international crude oil is in a high and narrow upward trend. The two major crude oil futures indicators climbed to highs in the past two years. Brent broke through the $70/barrel mark for the first time, and crude oil continued to rise support.Refined oilRetail prices are fluctuating upward in a positive range, and the window for this round of retail price increase will open at 24:00 on June 11.

Zhuo Chuang’s point of view: The recent strong performance of crude oil fundamentals has regained confidence in the bulls.Oil priceGrid recorded an increase for two consecutive weeks, as the market expected to improve global oil demand under the influence of accelerated vaccination, and the OPEC+ alliance continued to insist on the gradual restoration of supply from June to July, which offset the possibility of a consensus in the US-Iran nuclear agreement negotiations. The risk of increasing supply and the uncertainty of the epidemic in some other regions have impacted oil market demand.According to the current pricing mechanism of refined oil products, the rate of change of crude oil is within the fluctuation range of the positive range. This round of refined oil retail prices will open an upward adjustment window. According to the data monitoring model of Zhuo Chuang Information, as of the close of June 7th, it is the seventh in China. The reference crude oil change rate during the working day is 3.31%, which corresponds toDiesel oilThe price adjustment window is increased by 140 yuan/ton, and the price adjustment window is at 24:00 on June 11.

There may be a technical correction in the short-term high-level operation of crude oil. Early overbought indicators will cause some speculators to take profits. Oil prices are facing certain upward pressure. The market is mainly concerned about the process and results of US-Iran negotiations this week. However, the overall fundamentals are still strong and oil prices remain strong. There is room for low-level buybacks to push oil prices slightly higher. The rate of change of crude oil continues to fluctuate in a positive range. The retail price of refined oil reopened the upward adjustment window after the last round of stranded.

(Source: Zhuo Chuang Information)

(Editor in charge: DF506)