ROME – In 2030, 55.3% of new cars sold in Europe will be fully electric. Overtaking internal combustion cars will be the first important result to be achieved with the new CO2 parameters set yesterday by the EU Commission, which envisage a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. With the previous target set at 37.5%, cars with internal combustion engines (which include not only petrol and diesel ones but also hybrids and plug-in hybrids) in 2030 would still have represented 60.3% of new registrations, thus making it impossible to achieve the goal of selling only zero-emission cars by 2035 set yesterday by Brussels.
This is the scenario designed by IHS Markit if the plan proposed by the EU Commission is included in the package Fit for 55 aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the EU by 55% by 2030, it will be definitively ratified by the European Parliament in the coming months. Analyzing the impact that the new cut proposed by Brussels would have on the car market in 2030, the IHS Markit study estimates that the lion’s share would be played by fully electric cars with a share of 55.3%, followed by Mild Hybrids. (23.4%), full Hybrids (11%), Full Hybrid plug-in (9.6%), hydrogen cars (0.5%) and, last but not least, petrol and diesel cars ( 0.1%).
This acceleration of electrification in EU countries will not only have an impact on manufacturers, but will also give a boost to the market for lithium-ion batteries for cars, whose demand will grow in 2030 from the 354 GWh that would have been enough for the previous target of 37. , 5%, to the 468 GWh needed to reach the new target of a CO2 cut of 55%. This scenario – specifies IHS Markit – will also have an important impact on suppliers’ strategies, due to the more accelerated decline in demand for components for traditional internal combustion engines. In fact, compared to the 60.3% forecast, with the new proposal to cut CO2 made by the Commission in 2030, registrations of cars with internal combustion engines will represent only 44.2% of the EU market.
According to the Anfia, the current Brussels proposal, making an ” incomprehensible and univocal technological choice ”, does not take due account of the industrial, economic and social impacts on most Italian component companies, including the multinationals present on our territory ”. And it does not consider ” the fundamental contribution that they could make to decarbonization through the use of renewable fuels with a low carbon content ”. Even the choice not to provide flexibility mechanisms in the transition, including those for small manufacturers, ” highlights an ideological choice that does not take into account the multiple specificities of the automotive supply chain, heavily penalizing niches of excellence, especially the Italian ones’ ‘. For this reason the Anfia, representing the more than 5,000 companies of the Italian industrial chain, addresses ” an appeal to the Italian institutions to adopt a path of accompanying the components supply chain to productive reconversion and to represent with determination the requests of one of the most important of the country in the legislative process that will follow the proposal in the coming months ”.
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