The zero return of export duties for regional economiesamong them the fruit growing of Río Negro and Neuquén, would mean the national government giving up some US$ 400 million in annual collection on the total that was intended to be obtained with the generalization of the tax that originally appeared in the Omnibus Law that Congress is analyzing.
He original project presented by the Executive Branch established the extension of withholdings to 15% for all exportswith some exclusions, which meant additional income of 0.42% of GDP, equivalent to about US$ 2,000 million.
The planned increases They are: soy derivatives from 31 to 33%; wheat and corn from 12 to 15%; beef from 9 to 15% and industrial products from 0 to 15%.
But the initiative is resisted by the governors who from the first minute They were reluctant to support a tax increase.
He governor of Córdoba, Martín Llaryoraappeared today in the National Congress to discuss the issue and He reiterated his opposition to the increase in tax pressure.
As negotiation pledge in the last hours the Executive Branch agreed to return export duties to zero for all regional economies, including winegrowing which had a rate of 8%.
According to the representative Luis Picat (UCR-Córdoba) estimated to this medium that transfer would be for a figure equivalent to US$ 400 million.
“The problem is that In the annexes with the products that are left out there are only statements and we don’t know what’s inside,” Picat complained, also raising doubts about the final figures.
In it new project being discussed by the Government excludes only twenty regional economies out of a universe of 7,000 and maintains industrial withholdings and those of the oilseed or cereal complex unchanged.
Among the main sectors that would benefit from this new provision is the peanut industry that would recover US$ 165 million and the viticulturewhich according to the “Bodegas Argentinas” association that was presented in the Plenary of Commissions, would avoid the payment of some US$60 million. Other relevant chains such as forestry would also benefit.
Another point that the Government gave in exchange for support is the power to modify the ratesleaving only the possibility of lowering them in their power.
Omnibus Law: support for the resistance of the governors
In resistance to the Government, the provincial leaders who lead the complaint They received a series of supports.
Argentine Rural Confederations (CRA) issued a statement in which it supported the public opposition of Llaryora and his counterpart from Santa Fe, Maximiliano Pullaro.
But behind the withholding issue there also sneaks reversal of the Income tax and the financing of provincial accounts.
In the background, The governors intend for the Economy to close its numbers by paying the cost in the AMBA. Thus they demand that the Executive accelerate the removal of subsidies for transportation and energy rates.
“It pains me that a Government in which I had expectations that it would focus on superfluous expenses to correct the fiscal deficit; and that it was going to deal with inequality in the distribution of resources and subsidies in rates, for example, “I want to tax the industry that generates work in my province,” Pullaro said openly today.. And he finished: “If you analyze, Those two or three points of deficit in the national economy are concentrated in the AMBA.”
Llaryora also spoke in favor of looking for other financing tools instead of raising withholdings.
The impact of withholdings in the industrial sector
The governors’ chorus was also joined by industrial sector that in 2023 totaled exports of US$27,000 billion.
According to estimates of the UIA “fiscal pressure due to the effect of the new duties on exports of industrial goods and food and beverages, sand would increase on average more than 11 percentage points.”
He therefore pointed out that this increase would cause the total erosion of the competitiveness that was gained with the devaluation.
In Economy are still prudent with the evaluations and avoid commenting on what compensatory measures would be taken to replace the US$ 400 million that would be transferred.
The option of advancing the timing of rate updates is on the table, but the inflationary impact and impact on the level of activity that a measure of this style will have is one of the crucial points to calibrate.
He document with which Caputo presented the scheme to achieve fiscal balance, calculating that due to subsidy cuts the treasury would recover 0.7 points of the product, which is equivalent to about US$ 3.5 billion.