Las first inflation projections from the private sectoror they estimate that March inflation could be in the same area as that of February, which justifies the Government’s concern to generate measures that sustain the deceleration.
The complications on the political side with the rejection of DNU 70 in the Senate and the complex negotiations with governors and deputies, lead the Government to look for signs in the economy to add some type of income.
The brake on inflation was a tool but when March started, signs appeared that forced the Treasury Palace to activate political actions so that the fall in inflation is not aborted.
The concern that was palpable in the Treasury Palacea became a reality with the cuts of private consulting firms referring to the first half of March.
In its report on the evolution of food prices for the first week of the month, The consulting firm LCG reported an increase of 3.6%, with an acceleration of 2.3 points compared to the previous period. In the sum of the previous four weeks, the increase reached 12%.
In different interviews, President Javier Milei warned that this is logical behavior at every start of the month.
The work of the same company for the second week showed an increase in food of 3.3%, just 0.3 points below the first. Therefore, accumulated inflation rose to 6.9%.
In a similar vein, The consulting firm EcoGo pointed out that “in the second week of the month, food registered an increase of 2.8%, marking a slowdown of 0.3 points compared to the previous week.”
“With this data and considering projected increases for the remaining two weeks of 3%, Inflation in food consumed within the home would rise to 12.2% in March. If the increases recorded in food consumed outside the home are also incorporated, food inflation would reach 11.7%,” he added. With this dataEcoGo reduced the monthly projection for March to 13.2%.
Lautaro Moschet, economist of the Freedom and Progress Foundationnoted that “in the first two weeks of March, accumulated inflation is below 7%.” “We expect inflation to continue its downward path and be below 13.2% from the last month,” he evaluated.
Stable dollar, rising bonds and low country risk
With relative calm in the dollar market, attention today is focused on financial assets and mainly on bonds that continue to rise and caused the Country Risk to fall to less than 1,500 basis points, something that has not happened since 2021.
The blue dollar closed at $1,000 for purchase and $1,030 for sale. The dollar that is giving the note is the cash with liquid that is slowly approaching the $1,100 area again. The price rises 1.13% or 12.25 pesos and is sold at $1,095.85.
The country risk index for Argentina fell 5.6% and stands at 1,496 points
basics, a level from September 2021. Thus, so far in March, this index – prepared by the JP Morgan bank – has fallen 21.5% in the year. The decline is driven by the rise in Argentine bonds on Wall Street as a result of the improvement in the country’s fiscal and commercial results.