The Spring Festival pre-sale breaks 100 million cinemas to explore a new mode of survival – yqqlm

The Spring Festival pre-sale breaks 100 million cinemas to explore a new mode of survival

Author: Jie Shu Yi Leyan

　　[ 孙佳山预计，今年春节档应该不会显著超过2021年春节档，因为今年除了疫情的原因，影片存量方面也没有那么多好片子，这两年的产能都受到了明显的限制。 ]

　　[ 在春节档，主旋律影片应该还是会有一定的表现，但是不一定撑起整个档期的整体票房。 ]

　　[ 展望2022年全年电影市场，孙佳山认为情况不一定有想象中那么乐观。 ]

The Spring Festival holiday is approaching. For the sake of epidemic prevention and safety, many people choose to celebrate the New Year on the spot. Therefore, watching movies is considered to be a major consumption method during the Spring Festival holiday this year.

It has been two years since the 2020 Spring Festival file was withdrawn due to the epidemic. During this period,Chinese filmThe market has gone through different stages such as shutdown, waiting, restarting, and recovery. With the re-screening of classic films, the “overtaking on the curve” of domestic films, and the development of new ways by cinema investors, the current film industry practitioners have become accustomed to coexisting with the epidemic.

In 2021, the Chinese film market will end with a box office of 47.258 billion yuan. It can be said that from the box office data, the Chinese film market has recovered about 70%.

What will the movie market look like in 2022? Can the Spring Festival as the first major opening of the year to boost the annual box office?

“Chinese Narrative” Becomes Mainstream

The Chinese film market in 2021 has ended with a box office of 47.258 billion yuan.

The “2021 China Film Market Annual Report” jointly released by the Lighthouse Research Institute and the Lighthouse Professional Edition shows that, as the first year after the epidemic is stabilized, the total box office of Chinese films in 2021 will reach 47.258 billion yuan, recovering to 74% of the pre-epidemic 2019; In terms of content supply, a total of 697 films were released throughout the year, a record high; in terms of content market, “Chinese Narrative” has become the core theme of the past year.

The “2021 China Film Market Annual Report” shows that the box office of imported films in 2021 will account for 20% of the market, less than 1/2 of that in 2016 (as high as 45% in that year); Domestic films continued to develop steadily this year. Among them, the film “Changjin Lake” broke the film history record with a box office of 5.77 billion.

As the global epidemic has not stabilized, in the past two years, foreign blockbusters have entered the country less than in previous years. In this regard, Bai He, head of the theater section of Chengdu Film Group, believes: “Everything has two sides. There are no imported films. In the short term, it will have a certain impact on the broader market. But in the long run, this actually gives domestic films a curve to overtake. Opportunity. Before the epidemic, the country imposed certain restrictions on imported films in order to protect domestic films. Now there is no need for restrictions, and it is just time to wait for the development of domestic films.”

Judging from the box office of a single film, “Changjin Lake”, “Hello, Li Huanying” and “Detective Chinatown 3” are the top three at the annual box office, and the total box office of the three has exceeded 15 billion yuan. This is also the second consecutive year for Chinese films. There are three works in the global box office top ten. Among them, “Detective Chinatown 3” and “Hello, Li Huanying” alternately led the Spring Festival files, setting a new box office record of 7.842 billion yuan during the Spring Festival. 4.388 billion yuan at the box office, the second-highest box office in history.

The “2021 China Film Market Data Insights” released by Maoyan Research Institute shows that the composition of consumer groups in the film market in 2021 will change significantly. As the first batch of post-00s entered adulthood, they quickly entered the film market and gradually became the main force of consumption, driving the overall age structure of the audience in the Chinese film market to be younger.

It is worth noting that the above insight data shows that from the perspective of movie viewing preferences of different generations, youth, love, youth animation, horror and other genres are the preferred themes of the post-00s; Choose more suspense-themed movies; the post-90s have a stronger preference for action, adventure and other genres; the strong demand for parent-child movie viewing of the post-80s is clearly reflected in their enthusiasm for animated films; drama films and historical war themes are more important to the post-70s generation And the audience before the 70s have a stronger appeal. In addition, the sinking market continued to expand, and the share of third- and fourth-tier cities approached 40% for the first time. Among them, the fourth-tier cities recovered quickly after the epidemic, and their annual movie attendance exceeded that of first- and third-tier cities.

High hopes for the head video

In the upcoming 2022 Spring Festival, many top videos will be gathered again. The films that have been confirmed to be released so far include “The Water Gate Bridge of Changjin Lake”, “The Four Seas”, “Miracle · Stupid Child”, “Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf’s Basket Out of the Future”, “This Killer Is Not Too Calm”, “Bears Return to Earth”, “Sniper” “Hand” and “Little Tiger Dung Hero” and other films.

As of January 23, the Maoyan Spring Festival file real-time want to watch list shows that “Changjin Lake’s Water Gate Bridge” currently ranks first, “Miracle Stupid Child” and “Sihai” are ranked second and third respectively. As of 11:40 on January 23, the real-time pre-sale list on the Maoyan platform showed that the total pre-sale box office of “Changjin Lake: Water Gate Bridge” exceeded 36.3 million yuan, ranking first; 10,000 yuan ranked second, “Si Hai” ranked third at the pre-sale box office of more than 14 million yuan, and the total pre-sale box office of the Spring Festival stalls has exceeded 100 million yuan.

Observing the Spring Festival stalls in previous years, it can be found that the box office of the Spring Festival stalls from 2016 to 2021 has increased year by year, from 3.09 billion yuan to 7.84 billion yuan; among them, the box office of the Spring Festival stalls on the first day also increased steadily to 1.69 billion yuan.

From the perspective of single-film performance, every year, there are films that rely on word-of-mouth to achieve a counter-attack at the box office, such as “Operation Red Sea” in 2018, “The Wandering Earth” in 2019 and “Hello, Li Huanying” in 2021. The box office rose sharply the next day; male-oriented films seldom had a high pre-screening popularity.

According to the current Maoyan and Lighthouse platform data, the top three most wanted to watch in the Spring Festival are “Changjin Lake Water Gate Bridge”, “Miracle Stupid Child” and “Sihai”. This order is also consistent with the current The Spring Festival pre-sale box office ranking is the same. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, from 2016 to 2021, it has become the norm that the top 3 films in the Spring Festival box office will account for 80% of the box office.

Industry analysts of the Lighthouse Research Institute believe that since the finalization of the file has not yet been finalized, the box office distribution of the 2022 Spring Festival files is a continuation of the “1/3, 1/4, 1/5” distribution model from 2017 to 2019. , or go back to the “super head” mode of 2021 and 2016? It’s not clear yet.

“Judging from the prominent Matthew effect of the Spring Festival stalls in the past two years, the finalization of the “Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake” will definitely lead to re-planning of various filmmakers. For some types of films, the Spring Festival stalls may not be the best. choice.” said Sun Jiashan, an associate researcher at the China National Academy of Arts.

Lin Hongli, vice president of Yibin Film Association, predicted that “Changjin Lake: Water Gate Bridge” will not become the “dominant family” in the Spring Festival file, because the National Day file must have been dominated by the main theme films, but during the Spring Festival, family-friendly films and comedy films will also be very welcome. In addition, “Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake” is a bit long, and from the professional point of view of the cinema, it does not necessarily have an advantage. “The box office of the 2022 Spring Festival file should be able to compete with last year’s 7.8 billion yuan, but the key depends on the epidemic prevention situation this year. If there are not too many epidemics recurring, it should be fine.” Lin Hongli is optimistic about this year’s Spring Festival file. .

The impact of capacity constraints is still

Which listed companies participated in the production and distribution of this Spring Festival file?

As a companion piece to “Changjin Lake”, the producers and distributors of “Changjin Lake: Water Gate Bridge” include Chinese Films (600977.SH) andShanghai Film(601595.SH), “The Four Seas” is produced and distributed by Alibaba Pictures (01060.HK) andHengdian Film and Television(603103.SH), China Film and Alibaba Pictures participated in the production of “Miracle: Stupid Child”, and Hengdian Film and Television also participated in the production and distribution of “Bear Infested: Return to Earth”. also,Light Media(300251.SZ) is one of the producers of “Sniper”.

Combing the public information shows that overall, there are more than 60 production companies behind the 2022 Spring Festival films, including “Miracle Stupid Kid” produced by 8 companies including Bad Monkey, China Film, Alibaba Pictures, Wanda Film and Television; “Sniper” In addition to Guangguang Media, there are also 9 companies including Beijing Wonder Time, iQIYI Pictures, and Changying Group.

From an investment point of view, “Shuimen Bridge of Changjin Lake” should be the most invested in this year’s Spring Festival films, followed by “The Four Seas”,Fruit and wheat cultureIt was announced that the company signed a “Film Investment Cooperation Agreement” with Tingdong Pictures, investing 13 million yuan to purchase a 5% investment share of the new film “Si Hai”. Relatively speaking, other films have lower investment.

Sun Jiashan predicts that this year’s Spring Festival file should not significantly exceed the 2021 Spring Festival file, because apart from the epidemic this year, there are not so many good films in the film stock, and the production capacity in the past two years has been significantly limited. During the Spring Festival, the main theme film should still have a certain performance, but it may not necessarily support the overall box office of the entire period.

Looking forward to the film market in 2022, Sun Jiashan believes that the situation may not be as optimistic as imagined. In addition to the epidemic, as early as 2018 and 2019, the production capacity of Chinese films has reached the upper limit range. “The upper limit of production capacity refers not only to the upper limit of the number of films, but also to the upper limit of the production capacity of the theater line, that is, the number of screens, the number of audiences, the frequency of watching movies, and the number of seats in the theater. It is impossible to expand the production capacity without limit, not to mention the project approval rate of domestic films. And the completion rate has also declined.” Sun Jiashan said.

New explorations under the epidemic

In the second year after the epidemic, the theater gradually came out of the haze and got used to coexisting with the epidemic. The theater where Bai He is located is undergoing changes recently. On the one hand, it reduces labor costs, and on the other hand, it innovates in the viewing experience.

“For example, we began to think about how to optimize labor costs during the construction phase of the new theater. The 858-seat Shahe Cinema now has only 5 employees. Before the epidemic, a theater of this size required more than 10 people. The number of people is small, and the average salary is per capita. It must be higher, but the overall labor cost is lower.” Bai He told Yicai.com.

In terms of optimizing the viewing experience, the newly built Chengdu International Cinema has set up a “single and double-seat mix and match” in the cinema. The previous couple seats were replaced with double seats, that is, two single seats with the middle armrest removed, so that the width of each seat was increased by 4 cm, and the comfort was improved. In the past, children were free of tickets, but they could only hug and watch, or go far ahead to find an empty seat. Families with young children can now huddle and sit down.

In addition, some cinemas have also set up a sky-screen cinema, and the screen is slanted on the top, so that after the VIP sofa is put down, you can lie down and watch the sound and picture from top to bottom, bringing a sense of immersion and oppression feel. Shanghai’s Ganghui SFC Studios was also renovated during the epidemic, upgrading IMAX and other projection equipment.

Lin Hongli also redecorated her theater, trying to create an “Internet celebrity” theater, adding mirror decorations, which is suitable for young people who like to take pictures in the mirror and post on Moments and Douyin. In addition, the sales channel of Douyin online ticket purchase is also adopted, so that more young people are willing to participate.

Lin Sheng, a partner of Shanghai Xingyi International Cinema, runs two theaters in Shanghai. According to him, the revenue and expenditure of his theater will basically be flat in 2021, and it will probably make a profit of more than 100,000 yuan. “Because our rent is cheap, some theaters should suffer a small loss.” Lin Sheng revealed.

Regarding the outlook for the film market in 2022, Bai He believes that it will definitely be better than 2021. 2020 is the trough of the market. When it is at the lowest point, any direction you go is progress. All aspects of the film market, such as theaters and production companies, have adapted to coexist with the epidemic.

Lin Hongli believes that before the epidemic, imported blockbusters accounted for about 30% of the box office. If blockbusters do not come this year, the film market will be greatly affected. “I estimate that if foreign films can’t get in after the new year, some theaters may close down, especially small and medium-sized theaters.

Responsible editor: Chen Cheng