There are 22,361 new infections from Covid recorded in the last 24 hours, according to data from the Ministry of Health. Last Wednesday there were almost 4 thousand fewer cases. There have been more cases for five consecutive days than on the same days in the previous week. The curve therefore shows signs of an upturn and it cannot be excluded that this resumption of infections after the decline of the last few weeks is not linked to the growth in the presence of the Omicron 5 sub-variant in Italy which would now be around 13%, a much more contagious mutation. of the previous sub-variants and guilty of new waves in some European countries.
In the last five days, the first signs of recovery
For weeks, even if with a very slow descent, the infections have been steadily and gradually decreasing. For five days, however, a first slight reversal of the trend has been observed, at least if we compare the same days of the week. And so it turns out that Saturday 4 June there were 22,527 cases against 18,255 on Saturday 28 June, while on Sunday 5 June 15082 new infections were recorded against 14826 on Sunday 29 May. Same growing trend in the following days: Monday 6 June 8512 cases, more than the 7537 of Monday 30 May, while Tuesday 7 June the new infections were 28082 against the 24267 of the previous Tuesday (31 May). Finally, on Wednesday 8 June the new positives were 22361, a good 3970 more than the 18391 of Wednesday 1 June. The current Covid positives also return to rise after many days with +18 cases in 24 hours and a total of 628,995: the previous day’s bulletin of the Ministry of Health had recorded a drop of -2,371. Out of the total, 624,500 people are in home isolation.
Omicron 5 in Italy would already be present at 13%
Surely it is still early to talk about a turnaround. But the first signs are all there and the fault of this mini ascent could be the last sub-variant of Omicron, the Ba5 renamed precisely Omicron 5 which is more contagious than the so far dominant “sisters” and which in some European countries has already caused a rise of the curve: in particular in Portugal, but also in Germany, France, Austria, Belgium and Holland. Just in these days the Ministry of Health and the Higher Institute of Health have launched a new flash survey, a survey to find out about the presence of variants and sub-variants. In the last survey at the beginning of May, the Ba5 was present only at 0.41%, but today it would be at, already less than 13% according to the calculations made by Ceinge-Biotecnologie on the basis of the genetic sequences of the virus deposited in our country in the database international Gisaid. Omicron 5 and also 4 (very similar) would have in particular a competitive advantage over the hitherto dominant Omicron 2 and could replace it within a few weeks.
The results of the new flash survey are expected
The numbers are still few to say if one of these new sub-variants could cause a new wave of Covid-19: “It’s possible, even if more data would be needed,” observes the geneticist Massimo Zollo, coordinator of the Ceinge Covid-19 Task Force and of the Federico II University of Naples. What is clear, she added, is that “the virus tries to attach itself to cells more efficiently.” From May 25 to today, he continues, in our country “219 sequences of the SarsCoV2 virus have been deposited and, of these, 29 are of the sub-variant BA.5: it is clear that with numbers like these it is not possible to trace it exactly in Italy”. The sequences obtained so far “come from Umbria, Lombardy and Emilia Romagna, but – he notes – it is probable that BA.5 is also present in other regions”. To shed light on the actual presence of Omicron 5 in Italy will be the new flash survey by the Ministry of Health and the ISS which, however, will publish the data no earlier than mid-June.