Prostate Cancer Cases Expected to Double Worldwide by 2040, Study Shows
A study conducted by The Lancet Commission on prostate cancer has projected a significant increase in prostate cancer cases worldwide, with estimates suggesting that cases will double from 1.4 million per year in 2020 to 2.9 million per year by 2040. The study, which will be presented at the Congress of the European Association of Urology, raises concerns about the rising number of cases, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
In addition to the increase in cases, the study also predicts a significant rise in annual prostate cancer deaths, with a projected 85% increase from 375,000 deaths in 2020 to nearly 700,000 deaths by 2040. The authors of the study warn that the actual numbers may be even higher due to missed diagnoses and data collection challenges in less developed countries.
Most of these deaths are expected to occur in less developed countries, where rising case numbers and mortality rates pose a significant challenge. While prostate cancer deaths have declined in most high-income countries (HICs) since the mid-1990s, the trend is concerning for LMICs.
Prostate cancer is already a leading cause of death and disability, accounting for 15% of all male cancers worldwide. It is the second leading cause of cancer death in men in the UK and the most common form of male cancer in more than half of the world‘s countries. With the aging population and increasing life expectancy, the number of elderly men is expected to rise in the coming years, leading to an inevitable increase in prostate cancer cases.
Lead author Nick James, a professor of prostate and bladder cancer research, emphasizes the need for early detection and education programs to address the impending surge in cases. Evidence-based interventions, such as improved screening and education, could help save lives and prevent disease caused by prostate cancer in the future.
The authors recommend using MRI in combination with PSA testing to screen men at high risk for prostate cancer in HICs. This approach could reduce over-treatment while detecting life-threatening disease more effectively. In less developed countries, where the majority of men have metastatic cancer, new approaches to enable earlier diagnosis are crucial to improving outcomes and survival rates.
Innovative programs like the ‘Man Van’, which offers health checks and PSA tests to high-risk men, have shown promising results in early detection. By combining education, awareness, testing, and referral, similar initiatives could potentially improve early detection of prostate cancer globally.
As the incidence of prostate cancer continues to rise, proactive measures will be essential to address the growing burden of this disease worldwide.