;Resize=(1200,627)&hash=99ff2dca19d84c888a3a38fbaa6335845d00dc0a600fec4a33c4389852aea4aa "That’s what experts say – that’s how dangerous the new Corona variant “Arcturus” is")
XBB.1.16: “Arcturus” on the rise – how virologists assess the variant
The whole world must be seriously worried – an Indian researcher warned so dramatically about the Corona variant XBB.1.16. She also goes by the name “Arcturus”. Is the excitement justified? How dangerous is she really? FOCUS online asked.
It is named after the brightest star in the northern sky: Arcturus, the new omicron subvariant XBB.1.16. However, the faces of some researchers darken with their appearance. Because this variant increased the number of infections in India by 281 percent within 14 days – the number of deaths also increased by 17 percent in the same period.
“The whole world needs serious concern”
The tweeted Indian expert Vipin Vashishtapediatrician and researcher at Mangla Hospital and Research Center in Bijnor, India, and a member of the WHO Vaccine Group. The expert warned in his message: “All eyes should be on India! If XBB.1.16 aka #Arcturus could break the ‘robust’ population immunity of Indians who have successfully withstood the onslaught of variants like BA.2.75, BA.5, BQs, XBB.1.5 then the whole world must seriously worried!”
How dramatic is the situation and how threatening is the new Omikron variant for people in Germany? Experts answer the most important questions for FOCUS online:
How justified is the attention XBB.1.16 is getting?
Monitoring for new variants – now Arcturus as a current example – is essential in order to be able to continue to react quickly to changes in the corona pandemic. Hajo Zeeb, head of the Prevention and Evaluation department at the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (BIPS), explains this when asked and adds: “Since it is and will remain a global event, you can only agree if you look to where new varieties are spreading or being found, as is the case now in India.”
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Hajo Zeeb has headed the Prevention and Evaluation department at the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology – BIPS since January 2010. The professor is particularly interested in the evidence base in public health.
What danger does Arcturus pose?
So far, little is known about the extent to which the changes in the omicron variant affect it – for example, in terms of its pathogenic ability or how much it tricks the immune system. Arcturus is therefore not yet a threat. Zeeb says: “It is absolutely not clear to what extent the existing immunity is sufficient or circumvented, but attention is essential.” Ultimately, we now know exactly how quickly it can spread.
Exactly how well our immune system can fight off Arcturus will help determine how dangerous the variant develops. “XBB.1.16 has a number of other changes in the genome that not only affect the spike protein, but also the so-called ORF9b gene, which is involved in suppressing the interferon response,” explains Friedemann Weber, head of the institute for virology at the University of Gießen, the biological details. Interferons are messenger substances that are produced by infected cells to warn other cells of the infection and to initiate countermeasures. However, Sars-CoV-2 has a whole range of these so-called interferon antagonists, and ORF9b has not yet been one of the strongest representatives.
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Friedemann Weber is a professor of virology and director of the corresponding institute at the Justus Liebig University in Giessen. There he researches, among other things, corona and influenza viruses.
Therefore, Weber’s conclusion is: “I do not expect that the two XBB.1.16-specific mutations in ORF9b would radically change this. This, together with the new spike mutations, shows that XBB.1.16 certainly has potential to outperform existing immunity by a bit.”
What potential does Arcturus have to lead the pandemic in Germany into a new phase?
“It would be quite conceivable that such a new sub-variant could force us to extend the pandemic again,” warns Timo Ulrichs. But the time of year is playing into our hands here: “We are just entering spring in Europe, so a large-scale spread would be rather difficult than at the beginning of the autumn/winter season.”
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Timo Ulrichs is a specialist in microbiology and infection epidemiologist. He works at the Institute for Global Health as a program director for international emergency and disaster relief. He also worked as a consultant at the Federal Ministry of Health, where he was responsible, among other things, for epidemic protection and influenza pandemic planning.
Even if the pandemic could flare up again due to Arcturus, Ulrichs is calm about it. “Should the pandemic start again, we would be in a better position thanks to the basic immunization of the population that we have already achieved than in the early phase of the pandemic,” he says. Even if further crises meant that combating them might be more difficult and costly than before.
To what extent is a relaxed summer in danger?
The differences mentioned between Arcturus and previous variants are gradual, explains virologist Weber. So he rather assumes that XBB.1.16 could possibly extend the Corona season, but not that a new big wave is coming. His summary: “Even if you should always keep an eye on such variants, a relaxed summer should not be endangered because of this.”
The epidemiologist Zeeb sees the current corona situation in a similar way: “In my opinion, the prognosis for the summer remains good for the time being, since the circulation of the virus will be less overall.” Unfortunately, changes to these prospects are always possible.
Who should get vaccinated (again) now?
As a precaution, Ulrichs recommends risk groups to be vaccinated with the new omicron-specific vaccines. The expert emphasizes: “That would be recommended for all risk groups as a prophylactic, if they haven’t already done so.”
The other two experts also agree. The recommendations on this are currently not changing. It is very good, adds Zeeb, to keep the protection up to date, especially for the elderly and people with previous illnesses.
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