what happens (and why it is a data to be monitored)

The Covid it is not an ordinary cold, and the data of deaths day after day prove it. Of the lesser “malice” of the variant Omicronnow widespread throughout Italy, there is clear numerical evidence, which is also however the effect of measures put in place to fight the pandemic, such as vaccines.

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Focus on the lethality rate

We have compared the peaks of infections since the winter of 2020 to try to understand how the lethality rate, that is, the number of people who have died from a disease (in this case, Covid-19), dividing it by the total number of people affected by the coronavirus infection. The numbers confirm that something has happened and that the measures are working. But that, at the same time, there is need to continue because the lethality rate is timidly rising.

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First peak day considered, that of November 13, 2020when there were 40,902 cases in Italy and 550 deaths from Covid, with a lethality rate of1,12%. A few months pass, the Christmas holidays and the January 12, 2021 comes the second peak: 14,242 cases and 616 deaths. Here lethality splashes al 4,3%. After a little less than two months the new wave arrives: the 22 March 2021 there are 24,501 cases and 386 deaths (with lethality at1,5%). Percentages, therefore, that fall again.

The January 19, 2022 the numbers of infections are again scary, and confirm the greater contagiousness of the Omicron variant: 200,966 cases in a single day, but 380 deaths (the 0.1% lethality). The data of the February 19, 2022on the other hand, they attest to a situation with lethality increasing compared to the previous 30 days: 0,4% (with 50,675 cases and 252 deaths). A trend that was also found at the beginning of the month: the February 1st in Italy there were 133,306 cases and 427 deaths, for a lethality rate of 0,3%.

The variables

The variables at play that contributed to such a profound change between 2021 and 2022 were different. The first is the role that vaccines have played, the second that of a variant of the Sars Cov-2 virus that has shown reduced aggression. But compared to the lethality of 0.1% of January 19, today we are at 0.4%: a phenomenon to be monitored carefully.

The numbers highlight the effectiveness of vaccination measures, but also how important it is to continue with the third doses: now the 68.24% of people in Italy got it. A totally different percentage compared to those who had the primary vaccination cycle (82.78%), with the 2.57% waiting for the second. Research has repeatedly shown that the anti-Covid vaccine avoids severe stages of the disease: one more reason to rely on science.