EFE Agency
The Variability and Climate Change group of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)
revealed that his forecast involves the global average temperature exceeding the threshold of
warming of 1.5 °C in 2024.
The Barcelona Supercomputing Center – National Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS),
in northeastern Spain, it is one of the four decadal prediction centers in the world
endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization, which annually prepares forecasts
climate for the next decade.
After the records reached in 2021, the group made its decadal predictions (decadal
predictions in English), which conclude that the average annual surface temperatures
of the planet in 2024 could surpass those of 2023 (when there was an increase in
global average temperature of 1.48 °C).
The decadal prediction system (which instead of measuring by seasons does so by years and
decades) of the BSC predicts in its forecast that the average annual surface temperature
of the planet in 2024 will be between 1.43 and 1.69 higher than pre-industrial levels
(defined as the average temperature between 1850 and 1900), with a central estimate
of 1.54 °C, they explain in a statement.
For this reason, they point out, the temperatures in 2024 will be "probably higher than in 2023"
y "there is a high probability (74%) that the global annual average temperature will exceed
for the first time the threshold of 1.5 °C compared to pre-industrial levels".
Likewise, they point out that in the next 10 years it is expected that the temperatures of the
surface area continue to increase as a result of continuous greenhouse gas emissions
greenhouse.
The BSC prediction system reveals that, for the next two decades (2024-2028 and
2029-2033), global average temperatures could reach between 1.49-1.79 °C and 1.67-
1.94 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively.
From the BSC they remember that the warming is mainly due to the continuous
greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere due to activities
particularly the burning of fossil fuels.
Likewise, the consequences of the El Niño phenomenon that are developing in the
Pacific Ocean, and are expected to reach their highest point in the winter of
2023/2024, also contribute to the exceptionally warm conditions of the
global average temperature.
Note two
Intelligence directorate against environmental crimes created
Colombia will create a special intelligence directorate against environmental crimes to which
will allocate 5,000 million pesos (1.2 million dollars/1.1 million euros to the exchange rate
today), announced the Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development, Susana Muhamad, that
will seek to contain deforestation and protect environmental leaders.
The minister led the first session of the year of the National Council to Fight Against
Deforestation (Conaldef), where he was optimistic about the deforestation figures in the
Amazon for 2024, as they expect a decrease in numbers "compared to the
last two years".
The latest deforestation figures in the country, referring to the third quarter of 2023,
pointed out that this phenomenon was reduced by 26%, a trend that was replicated during
all year.
As for the new direction against environmental crimes, it will be directed by the division of
Carabineros and Environmental Protection of the Police with the objective of containing the
deforestation and protect environmental leaders and indigenous populations.
Muhamad also explained that they are working on creating a "monitoring table
Human rights due to threats to social leaders" of the Amazon.
The El Niño phenomenon
In addition, the minister once again warned about the serious situation that the country is experiencing in the context
of the El Niño phenomenon and trusted that Conaldef’s environmental interventions will serve
for "contain it".
The Government will activate the National Crisis Room for the El Niño Phenomenon, one of the measures
announced to address the critical situation that the country is going through.
Colombian authorities warned of a 390% increase in the number of
municipalities on red alert for forest fires in the last five days, a phenomenon
blamed on the dry season exacerbated by El Niño.
A total of 747 municipalities in the country are on alert due to the threat of fires.
Boyacá, with 82 municipalities; Cundinamarca (78), Santander (65) and Meta (24) are the
departments with the highest number of red alerts for fires, where there is monitoring
of heat points.
Given
"We are on red alert for forest fires in the national territory. It is the phenomenon of
El Niño aggravated by global warming. It may be the hottest year in history
of humanity around the world"Petro warned on his social networks.