Boris Johnson has always broken the rules but now his game has tired

Boris Johnson, puffy eyes and hunched shoulders, has made the same kind of apology to many people, many times. In May of 2020, while the UK was undergoing a rigid lockdown, Downing Street officials threw a party in the prime minister’s walled garden. Johnson had attended for 25 minutes. He admitted him to the House of Commons on January 12. And he said he understands the anger of the British at what happened after such a difficult spring.

The premier also exposed his defense, which will be central in the investigation entrusted to the official Sue Gray: he was an involuntary participant, since the garden was used as an office, and he thought “implicitly” that it was a work event. . It makes a bad impression, but “it can be said that technically it falls within the codes of conduct”. Keir Starmer, the Labor leader, called him ridiculous and called for his resignation.

Johnson will almost certainly not step down. The mood of Conservative MPs is gloomy and the donors who funded his election campaign are furious. “I feel a little disgusted,” says a lender who is considering turning off the taps. Some high-level figures, including Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, and William Wragg, chairman of a commission of inquiry, have called for his resignation. But his party is unlikely to force him to resign any time soon. For this it would be necessary for 54 deputies to sign a letter of no confidence and then for 180, half of the conservatives in parliament, to vote in favor of his expulsion.

Weakened and unpopular
The reputation of the Conservatives as ruthless regicides has been undeserved since the days of Margaret Thatcher. The party has since tolerated low-level performances very well: the unfortunate Theresa May was only dismissed in 2019, two years after losing the majority of the party. Some second-rate MPs are happy to have a crippled prime minister, as this makes him more docile on Brexit and covid-19-related policies.

For most of his career, Johnson’s political appeal has been to break the rules. As mayor of London he broke the little rules of politics, which forbid lies and extramarital affairs. Voters who were tired of subtleties appreciated it, as children love antics.

As prime minister he had promised to break the great rules within which political reality moves. A “people’s government” would offer anything that whetted the appetite of the people, especially things considered out of place because they were uneconomical or impractical. The UK could have left the European Union, radically cut immigration and donated funds for projects that mattered most to them, from bridges to royal yachts, without the state treasury being able to say anything. If the parliament filed it, it could have been suspended. Hers would have been a leisure administration, and he would have been a cheerful Charles II, as opposed to the sad Oliver Cromwell represented by May.

But after weeks of revelations about parties during the lockdown and irregular donations, failure to respect the small rules has lost its charm. Johnson is now severely weakened within his own party and unpopular. According to polling firm Ipsos mori, its net approval rating plummeted to minus 36 percent, close to that of Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn shortly before the 2019 election defeat. Keir Starmer, a former prosecutor, will be honest. in the public service one of the pillars of his campaign to become premier.

The problem of inflation
In the meantime, the great rules of politics have begun to make themselves felt again. The government faces a grueling springtime, preparing for local elections as household incomes are squeezed and public services are severely tested. The campaign will be led by a weakened prime minister, who will not be able to wave easy answers and ready-made solutions, as was his style.

Before the holidays, it was inflation that caused insomnia in Conservative MPs. Consumer prices rose 5.1 percent in November compared to a year earlier – the largest annual increase since September 2011. In the coming months, the increases are expected to break all records since the early 1990s. Salaries are unlikely to keep up with the prices of cars, clothes and cigarettes. Mostly retired people, a large chunk of the conservative electoral coalition, and people who benefit from state subsidies will be severely tested.

Much of the problem is caused by high global oil and gas prices, compounded by a poorly conceived British regulatory framework. In April, the government will raise the retail energy price ceiling. The average household’s annual bill is expected to rise by 50 percent. The Labor Party is bracing itself against the difficulties of the conservatives by proposing a temporary cut in VAT on energy bills.

It’s a clever political ploy, designed to irritate Tory supporters. The measure was promised by those responsible for Johnson’s Brexit campaign as a potential reward for leaving the EU, but was not implemented. However, notes Robert Joyce of the Institute for Tax Studies, the problem is so serious that even if it were implemented it would offset less than a fifth of the average increase in energy bills. A situation reminiscent of the early 2000s, when Labor Ed Miliband successfully exploited what he called a “cost of living crisis” to undermine the government of conservative David Cameron.

A 2.5 percent increase in national insurance, a tax on contributions split equally between employees and employers, is also expected in April. Leaders of the Conservative Party are unhappy, including Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the House of Commons. The extra money would have to support the National Health Service (NHS) for three years before being used to finance a new social assistance scheme.

But the NHS is experiencing a crisis due to the interruption of routine doctors’ activities during the pandemic. The increase in national insurance will change almost nothing. About six million people are already on the waiting list for hospital treatment and by 2024, when the next general elections take place, there could be 13 million, or one in five citizens. Everyone will know a person who is on the waiting list. Labor will be able to choose from many heartbreaking stories for their election campaigns. After his apology to the House of Commons, Johnson’s first question was from conservative James Davies, who complained that his college had an eight-week wait for a hearing check.

Boris Johnson’s fate will not be decided in the garden of 10 Downing street, but in supermarkets, gas stations and doctors’ waiting rooms. The last week was the most disheartening of his career. Next year it will be worse.

(Translation by Federico Ferrone)