Campania is “saved” Rt orange but is yellow – breaking latest news

SALERNO. We remain in the yellow zone despite the RT is “orange”. Campania was able to breathe a sigh of relief only yesterday afternoon, around 4 pm, when the communication from the Ministry of Health arrived that there will be no other ordinance for the “terra felix”. It is the final outcome of a chaotic day, which began early in the morning when the first rumors about the data analyzed in the usual control room on Friday emerged among the experts of the Istituto Superiore di Sanità and the ministerial delegates. Just in those hours an unexpected scenario made its way: Campania in “orange” from Monday. A possible “retrocession” which became consistent with the publication of the calculated value of the RT, the virus contagiousness index, which stood at 1.08, eight hundredths of a point more than the value indicated to trigger the “intermediate zone “Of limitations. What saves the region in the so complicated – and often conflicting – assessments on the “color” of the country is the evolution scenario of the epidemic evaluated for the territory that goes from Sessa Aurunca to Sapri: it is “low”, that is to say it suggests a virus advance slower than in the past. And, therefore, the ministry gave the ok to stay for the second consecutive week of Campania in the “yellow zone”. But with the current data, the risk of “relegation” for the future remains.
And give. Campania, therefore, is barely safe. It will still be “yellow zone” from Monday despite some data being valid for the “orange zone”. In particular that of RT: from 19 to 25 April, in fact, the average value of the “contagiousness” of the virus stood at 1.08 with a figure higher than 1 even in the lowest extreme (1.05). It is the only number, however, that is worth orange. And that has allowed the “terra felix” to remain in yellow: in the week of the ISS evaluation, 11,693 cases of Covid were ascertained, equal to 8.1% less than the previous analysis with an important collapse also of the new outbreaks. All other control indices, such as those relating to the probability of worsening of the epidemiological situation and of the overall risk classification, are assigned a “low” value. Precisely this type of assessment, therefore, has “saved” Campania, which did not even risk the numbers of the other “stake” that directly triggers the red zone, namely that of the 250 cases of contagion per 100 thousand residents in the last seven days. As of yesterday, in fact, in Campania there were 219 cases per 100 thousand people, 31 less than the maximum threshold. A value that is even better in the Salerno area: in the territory that goes from Sapri to Scafati, in fact, in the last week there have been 168 cases of contagion compared to the conventional sample used for the “special” calculation.
The scenario for the future. The situation for the next few weeks, also in light of the latest assessment by ISS and the Ministry of Health, remains difficult to interpret. The impression – at least at this moment – is that the “yellow zone” is destined to last since, in the week following the period between 19 and 25 April, the last evaluation was based on the “terra felix” there was a slowdown in the contagion. But the data of the last few days, however, do not make us calm. Even yesterday, in fact, Campania ended up only behind Lombardy in the “special” ranking of the territories where the greatest number of infections were ascertained. There were 2,214 positives recorded in the Northern region, 1,898 those from Campania compared to 20,727 swabs “sieved” in the laboratories accredited by Palazzo Santa Lucia. The positivity rate – as it has been happening for some time now – remains below the alert value of ten percent, repeatedly “exceeded” in the days on which the data of the last one were based control room. It is difficult, at the moment, to imagine a major worsening of the epidemiological situation between now and the next few days: the current impression, therefore, is that after having really gone one step away from the “orange zone”, Campania is destined to remain still in the “orange zone” yellow ”if it manages to maintain the contagion values ​​at the levels ascertained in the last week.
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