The infections have continued to rise in the last few weeks. The fourth wave in Italy, even if less powerful than other European countries thanks to the high vaccination rate (we are 83.8% of over 12 immunized), has again brought the number of currently positive to Covid above the threshold of 100 thousand. Agenas also reports the rise – after weeks of stability – in the percentage of places in intensive care nationwide occupied by Covid patients (from 4 to 5%). Friuli Venezia Giulia and Marche exceed the 10% alert threshold (they are at 11%), which represents one of the parameters for the passage of a region in the yellow zone (outdoor mask obligation and capacity for cinemas, theaters and stadiums reduced to 50 percent). In seven regions, then, the occupancy of ordinary beds also rises, remaining in any case everywhere below the alert threshold of 15% (the national average is 6%).
Infection rate four times higher for the unvaccinated
The risks of hospitalization and death are greater for those who have not been vaccinated. Based on the latest ISS-Epicenter ratio, the hospitalization rate is approximately seven times higher for “no vax” patients. But if you look at the data of the report, even the incidence of infections in the last month remains higher (more than four times) for the unvaccinated.
The paradoxical effect
Before analyzing the numbers more closely, a premise must be reiterated. From the moment in which vaccinations in the population reach high levels of coverage, the so-called “paradox effect” occurs whereby the absolute number of infections, hospitalizations and deaths can be similar or higher between vaccinated and unvaccinated, due to the progressive decrease in number of the latter.
The trend of infections by age group
For example, in the over 80 age group, where vaccination coverage is higher than 90%, it is observed that between 24 September and 24 October the infections among the vaccinated (4,591) are even quadruple those recorded among the not vaccinated (1,055). However, by calculating the incidence of infections on the reference population, the reports are reversed. And it is highlighted that this is over four times higher for the unvaccinated than for the full cycle vaccinated (447 vs 108 infections per 100,000 inhabitants). The incidence remains about four times higher for the unvaccinated than in all age groups. Even considering the population as a whole (408 vs 96 infections per 100,000 inhabitants).
The link between infections and low vaccination rates
At the national level, the incidence of infections is 62 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. But if we look at the regional level, the greatest peaks are recorded in the areas where the vaccination rate is lowest. In fact, in first place (260) there is the autonomous province of Bolzano, penultimate for vaccination rate in Italy with only 77.5% of over 12 immunized. While in second place is Friuli Venezia Giulia (197) which with 82.1% of vaccinated over 12 is still below the national average (83.8%).