“The Italian economy has regained momentum after a slow start in January. The robust increase in GDP forecast for the second quarter should bring the growth acquired “in 2022” in line, if not above the average annual forecast of the DEF (3.1%) “. The second half of the year, however, “is more challenging, also due to the rise in interest rates and the spread, but quarterly GDP growth should remain slightly positive”. The Mef writes this in the introduction to the program for issuing public securities in the third quarter of the year.
Target 5.6% deficit / GDP at the end of the year fully achievable
In this scenario, the target of a 5.6% GDP deficit ratio at the end of the year is “fully achievable”. «In the first five months of the year – we read in detail – the requirement was very limited. Also in light of an economic trend at least in line with the provisions of the Def, the deficit target of the public administration for 2022, set at 5.6% of GDP in the Def, is to be considered fully achievable, as well as, over a longer horizon, the goal of reducing net debt below 3% of GDP by 2025 ».
Inflation is expected to slow down in the second half of the year
Inflation, on the other hand, is “expected to decelerate in the second half of the year while remaining high compared to previous years and vulnerable to new increases in energy prices”. More recently, the inflationary impulse deriving from the energy sector has been joined by the increase in the prices of food raw materials caused by the war in Ukraine. The Mef recalls that the Government, “since last year, has responded to the sudden increase in the prices of energy products with measures to contain the costs of gas and electricity for users. Part of the measures contributed directly to containing the dynamics of prices ».