[Epoch Times October 06, 2021](Epoch Times reporter Zhang Ting’s comprehensive report) Since October 1, the CCP has sent 149 military aircraft to invade Taiwan’s Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone for 4 consecutive days. This not only set a record, but also triggered the outside world. Great attention. The analysis pointed out that there are five major motives behind the CCP’s move.
Taiwan has stated that it will respond to any invasion, which can be done through radio warning, anti-aircraft missile tracking or fighter interception.
The following is based on the analysis of experts quoted by CNN, and summarized the five motivations of the CCP’s military aircraft to disrupt the station:
1. Release political and military signals
Jacob Stokes, a researcher at the Center for a New American Security’s Indo-Pacific Security Project, said that the CCP’s large-scale harassment of Taiwan “first is (release) political and military signals in an attempt to intimidate Taiwan. The government, and exercise China’s (CCP)’s (sovereignty) claim to Taiwan”.
Chinese President Xi Jinping refused to rule out the possibility of using force to capture Taiwan if necessary.
Lionel Fatton, an expert on Indo-Pacific affairs at Webster University in Switzerland, said Beijing needs some means to prevent Taiwan from taking actions that Beijing does not want. After Taiwan formally submitted its application to join the “Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement” (CPTPP), the number of Chinese military aircraft entering the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone has surged.
This shows that Beijing will not tolerate this move by Taiwan. The spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Communist Party of China, Zhao Lijian, said on Twitter on September 23, “Regarding the CPTPP, we firmly oppose Taiwan’s entry into any agreement or organization of an official nature.”
Fadun said that the increase in the Chinese Communist Party’s military aircraft is Beijing telling Taipei that it has the means and firepower to support its tough stance. He said that this is a typical act of deterrence.
Carl Schuster, former operations director of the Joint Intelligence Center of the US Pacific Command, said Beijing is sending a signal to Taipei that it can launch an attack at any time. “This is a strong message that accompanies and reinforces China’s (CCP) threatening speech.”
Fadun said that it can be expected that the CCP will continue its pressure operations to ensure its deterrence posture.
On Tuesday, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen said that Taiwan will not succumb under pressure. Tsai Ing-wen published an article in the American magazine Diplomacy, stating that even if the CCP’s military aircraft disrupt Taiwan every day, “our position on cross-strait relations remains unchanged, that is, Taiwan will not succumb to pressure, but it will not take risks.”
2. Training the CCP Army
Stokes stated that the CCP’s second motivation is to allow CCP military pilots and related military support personnel to gain experience in conducting such operations under different conditions (for example, at night).
If Beijing decides to launch a full-scale military operation against Taipei, the Chinese military will need detailed intelligence to understand how the Taiwan military will respond.
“The People’s Liberation Army is testing and evaluating Taiwan’s ability to detect and respond to air threats. It also records Taiwan’s response time, tactics and air interception procedures.” Shuster said.
Schuster also believes that the large-scale flight of the Chinese military aircraft may continue. Essentially, the CCP army needs practice.
Shuster said that the U.S. Air Force and Navy consider large-scale exercises to be routine, and training is conducted at least every year. But the CCP army has no such experience.
3. Consume Taiwan’s military power
Stokes said that the third motive for the CCP to disrupt Taiwan was to force the Taiwan military to urgently mobilize aircraft to respond, with the purpose of making Taiwan’s air force and pilots tired of responding.
But Peter Layton, a researcher at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia, said that Taiwan may not be hooked.
He pointed out that the Taiwanese military did not use new photos of the aircraft in its press releases about the invasion of the Chinese military aircraft-instead, it used archive images of the Chinese military aircraft.
“However, Taiwan is publishing detailed trajectory data including the types of aircraft of the Chinese Communist Air Force. This means that (Taiwan’s military) can identify aircraft types through hidden means, that is, long-range electronic means.” He said.
4. Send a signal to friendly Taiwan countries
Some analysts also say that the Chinese Communist military is also sending a signal to friends in Taiwan, especially the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom: Even if Taipei gets their support, Beijing will not regress.
Whenever it does something to anger Beijing on friendly countries with Taiwan, the CCP will often send large-scale military planes to invade Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
For example, in April this year, the US Secretary of State warned Beijing that the day after Washington was committed to defending Taiwan, the CCP sent 25 military aircraft to disrupt Taiwan.
In June of this year, after the leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) issued a joint statement condemning the CCP for a series of problems and emphasizing the importance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, the CCP sent 28 military aircraft to disrupt Taiwan.
According to a statement from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and the Netherlands conducted multilateral naval exercises near Okinawa, which is only 730 kilometers (453 miles) away from Taiwan, when the Chinese Communist Party disrupted Taiwan in the past week. The exercise included two American and one British aircraft carriers.
Timothy Heath, a senior international defense researcher at the Washington think tank RAND Corporation, said, “(The CCP) has deployed multiple combat air formations as a flexible tool for sending political signals and warnings to Taiwan and Western countries.”
5. Taking the opportunity to use official media to release threatening speech
The fifth motive is that the CCP used state media to promote military aircraft entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone and released threatening statements. A report in the Chinese Communist Party’s official media “Global Times” stated that these military planes are a severe warning to the policies implemented by Taiwan’s ruling party.
Heath said that the Chinese Communist Party’s official media recently emphasized the “11th” holiday and strong warnings and threats to Taiwan, as well as warnings to the United States and the West, in both Chinese and English articles.
Editor in charge: Li Yuan#
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