The capital of the province of Nimruz was the first to fall on 6 August. The next day it was Sheberghan, the capital of the province of Jawzjan. Kunduz, Sar-e-Pol and Taloqan, three of the country’s 34 provincial capitals, fell on August 8. Aibak, the main city of Samangan, surrendered on the 9th. They are not the largest cities in the country, but their capture marks a worrying change of pace in the conflict.
Until now, the Taliban’s achievements had been limited mainly to rural districts. According to Kabul’s government, the insurgents lacked the firepower or numerical power to occupy cities. This reasoning turned out to be optimistic. The fighting is moving to urban centers, which puts more lives in danger. Larger cities, including Kandahar in the south and Herat in the west, are under siege. Lashkar Gah, the capital of Helmand province, was in danger of being invaded last week.
It is unclear whether the cities will be recaptured quickly. Kunduz had changed hands in both 2015 and 2016, but both times had been revived a few days later. This time around, the Afghan armed forces, fighting on many fronts, may have to concentrate their air force and command units to protect major cities.
The fall of the big cities is certainly not inevitable, but the mood is gloomy. The situation is humiliating for the Western powers whose armed forces have spent years trying to secure Afghanistan. The United States has almost completed the withdrawal of troops after twenty years of presence in the country. In theory, the Taliban are negotiating a deal with the Kabul government, as promised in the same deal with which Washington pledged to withdraw. In practice, that deal was a fig leaf to hide the failure of the American mission. The Taliban seem determined to take power by force.
Government forces are cornered. “We will overcome this. We will come out stronger and wiser. We will be resurrected as the phoenix, ”Vice President Amrullah Saleh said on August 6, trying to urge his nation to react boldly. Yet morale is low as Taliban’s lucid propaganda trumpets a string of victories.
The reaction
Many Afghans, however, responded with a defiant attitude. In recent days, thousands of people have gathered in the streets and rooftops of major cities, including Kabul, to wave the nation’s black, red and green flag, chanting “God is great!”. The demonstrations began in the western city of Herat, near the border with Iran. What started out as an idea on social networks was picked up by Ismail Khan, a local warlord who revived his militia to defend the city. Kabul followed Herat’s example the following evening. Since then, similar demonstrations have taken place in many cities.
The songs are both a direct challenge to the Taliban and an expression of support for the Afghan forces, says Saddaf Yarmal, a 20-year-old student who took part in it. “We have to support our country,” adds Mahjabin Siddiqi, a 23-year-old student. “The Americans have been here for twenty years, but we haven’t seen good results. Now it’s our turn, ”he said.
The choice of the phrase “God is great!” as a slogan it is meaningful. Not only had the same cry been the soundtrack of resistance to Soviet occupation in the 1980s, it is also a direct challenge to meet the Taliban’s claim of a religious mandate to rule. Islamic rebels like to claim a direct link to the insurgency that ousted the Russians, portraying their struggle as the latest battle against a non-Islamic regime in Kabul.
A Taliban spokesman then reacted angrily online to the use of the slogan, claiming ownership even though the phrase appears on the flag of Afghanistan. He said the insurgents have been conducting jihad with those words for twenty years and now they should not be used by “infidels slaves of Americans”.
The ongoing challenge in the big cities of Afghanistan is directed not only at the Taliban, but also at neighboring Pakistan. This is where much of the Taliban leadership lives and where fighters have sometimes found refuge. As the security situation worsened, anti-Pakistani sentiment grew. “Day by day it becomes clearer that Pakistan is interfering in our internal affairs,” said Javid Safi, a politician from Kunar province, on the border with Pakistan.
Both Afghan and retreating Western military commanders argue that the Taliban are not an unstoppable behemoth. A couple of government victories, or even deadlocks, could change that. But the insurgents are on the front line. And the six newly conquered cities are unlikely to be the last for them.
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