If Ukraine succeeds in increasing munition production, it still has a chance, General Hodges said. — © Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Too little ammunition, not enough men: the Ukrainian army faces major challenges in countering the Russians. Fortunately, according to former American general Ben Hodges, the Russian army also has some weaknesses. He is even optimistic.
There has not been much positive news for Ukraine at the front lately. Military experts noted that the Ukrainian army is finding it very difficult to recruit enough new soldiers and a lack of ammunition has not made it easier to counter the slowly advancing Russian army.
And yet there is no reason to despair, says American ex-general Ben Hodges (65) in an interview with Tagesspiegel. “I think the analyzes that are made are too defeatist and too dark,” says Hodges. He suspects that Russian soldiers will continue to achieve small tactical successes in the coming months, as they have done in recent weeks in Avdiivka, among other places. But according to him, we should not expect major changes to the detriment of Ukraine.
Former general Ben Hodges: “I find the analyzes being made too defeatist and too dark.” — © image/Metodi Popow
Taken a fifth
“Russia may be superior in the air and on land, but after a decade of war it has still captured only a fifth of Ukraine’s territory,” said Hodges, who points to the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea as the starting point. of the war. “It also doesn’t have enough ammunition. So the most important thing in the coming months will be who can quickly ramp up production of weapons and ammunition. This will be the year of the industrial race.”
Hodges also emphasizes Russia’s weakness at sea. “Their Black Sea fleet has lost another ship and is withdrawing from Sevastopol after their vulnerabilities there were exposed.” In recent months, several Russian ships have already been destroyed in the Black Sea, which is a good development for Ukraine. As a result, there are fewer Russian ships near Crimea. “And in the past two weeks, the Russian military has lost 13 aircraft,” said Hodges. “So it also has difficulty maintaining its superiority in the air.”
Avdiivka fell to the Russians, but: “We shouldn’t pretend this is Stalingrad,” said General Hodges. — © AP
The fact that Avdiivka has fallen is therefore not disastrous. “You have to put this in the correct geographic and operational context,” says Hodges. “It is in the far east of Ukraine, but some people make it seem like this is Stalingrad. But the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from that city was a result of the lack of ammunition, not drones.” And so there are still opportunities with replenished ammunition stocks, he says. “But new soldiers also need to be added.”
Commander optimistic
That optimism is shared by Oleksander Pavliuk (53), the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces in the war, appointed by President Zelensky at the beginning of February. In an interview with the Ukrainian public broadcaster, he calls the situation “difficult”, but believes it is under control. According to him, his soldiers are doing everything they can to stabilize the situation at the front and “kill as many Russians as possible, which is what we are doing at the moment.”
He even expects his army to launch a new offensive against Russian forces in the country this year. “Because despite the intense fighting, our troops are holding out,” he says. “But the enemy losses are enormous.” He thinks the situation will be stabilized soon. “And then we will do everything we can to prepare our soldiers for more active operations.” In these operations, the initiative would come from Ukraine itself, he emphasizes.