The negotiated solution to the political crisis in Venezuela for the restoration of democracy in the nation ―recommended by the United States administration and other international allies― is losing steam as the regime of Nicolás Maduro gains regional recognition.
Thomas Shannon, a former US diplomat familiar with the region – he was in Venezuela (1996-1999) and Brazil (2010-2013) – and US foreign policy, told the Financial Times that, at the recent summit of South American presidents, Lula had “undermined the plan of Joe Biden’s government by convincing Maduro not to have to give anything to the opposition”, since against his regime the “narratives of authoritarianism and anti-democracy”.
However, the Venezuelan democratic forces continue on the electoral path of the primary, which has served as a mechanism to find out how citizens perceive politicians, how they are listening to them.
In general, people are disappointed in the party leaders. She feels bad emotionally, very angry. She goes from discomfort to fear and from fear to discomfort in a continuous movement, which causes her enormous emotional instability. And that is reflected in the polls. They point out that 70% of the population is not defined by any of the political options, so anything can happen. So who connects emotionally?
María Corina Machado has hit the nail on the head when it comes to some issues. She touches the emotions when she talks about the reunification of the family. She connects with the 7.2 million Venezuelans who have had to leave the country so that their children and parents can live with dignity. She rebuilds the lost confidence that this reunion will be possible and those who plan to migrate will not. It’s what everyone wants.
In addition, the former deputy and leader of Vente Venezuela is doing real politics. Discuss values, the future and power. She proposes liberal democracy for Venezuela. She is diametrically opposed to the socialism that has ruined the country in the last 24 years. Without fear and without ambiguity, she proposes “economic freedom, the promotion of human development based on individual capacities, the support of talent for entrepreneurship in favor of the generation of family wealth. But, above all, the reestablishment of the Rule of Law, the Republican State, citizen confidence in public institutions”.
Meanwhile, within the G-4 they are settling the candidacies among the hearts: if they are disqualified or not, if they support each other, what will each one of them get. This has led to an important part of the bases of these organizations not feeling represented by these pre-candidates and there is a distance between the leader and the militant, which in the end results in a dispersion of the vote. Let’s remember that these organizations are used to a certain verticality, to obeying the “party line” ㅡobserved in the elimination of the interim last Januaryㅡ which is an inherent part of their political culture.
Well, this verticality is beginning to deteriorate, so the intention to vote for these candidates is stagnant. A vote that begins to migrate towards the option that connects more with your emotion.
Consequently, it is not by chance that María Corina Machado is leading the polls. And the concentrations of it are very well attended despite the financial limitations and the partisan machinery. And the blockade in every way by the Maduro regime.
On the other hand, there are doubts about the unity factor within the democratic forces after the primary because there are two dominant tendencies convinced that one must prevail over the other. If María Corina Machado wins, many of the people of the G-4 will distance themselves from that option. And if the opposite happened, the same thing would happen. They are almost irreconcilable looks about what power, values and vision of the future implies.
On the other hand, Chávez’s successor had to appeal to the “Everyone with Maduro” and “The people rule with Maduro” as the central theme of his campaign. Also, aware that his popularity is very low at the moment, he made it clear that the presidential election will be in 2024.
For now, the electoral landscape of the primary demands a great commitment of all the factors to be part of the coalition of a future government. Not just “open your arms” to receive chavistas who rebel against Maduro. It will require the generosity of the pre-candidates, if they have a vocation to win the 2024 presidential elections. They will have to do it because if they do not lose, legitimizing the origin of the Maduro regime and frustrating once again the majority of Venezuelans who once again have hope , especially in María Corina Machado.