Original title: Which chemicals are most affected by the violent typhoon “Fireworks”?
Introduction: Recently, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a typhoon orange warning for several days. The sixth typhoon “Fireworks” of 2021 has landed in the Putuo area of Zhoushan at around 12:30 on July 25. The intensity of the landfall was typhoon-level. According to the latest report from the Central Meteorological Observatory, Typhoon Fireworks made landfall on the coast of Pinghu City, Zhejiang Province at around 9:50 on the 26th. After landing, it will circulate in Eastern China. In addition, during the current astronomical tide, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Eastern China such as Jiangsu may be hit by wind, rain and tide.
Affected by this, many places such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai have suspended civil aviation, high-speed rail and subway services. Major terminals, storage yards and warehouses in Ningbo and Shanghai have been notified successively to suspend operations. All traffic within the typhoon circle is basically stopped. The chemical product market is an industry that is highly dependent on import and export trade and shipping. Due to the obstruction of imported cargo and the restriction of domestic shipping and land transportation, the supply and demand in the product area is undergoing certain changes.
Through the screening of key items involved in the chemical industry, Zhuo Chuang Information conducted research and analysis on the short-term and long-term impacts of product supply and demand due to the closure of ports due to the impact of the typhoon, and limited water and land transportation. It has a preliminary understanding of the current stage. The most affected items areMethanol, Propylene, styrene, ethanol and ethylene glycol butyl ether. After the affected items, Zhuo Chuang Information will continue to follow up.
The typhoon “fireworks” hit, mainly affecting the progress of unloading and warehousing methanol cargoes in important areas of East China. According to Zhuochuang Information, starting from July 21st, most of the terminals in Jiangsu, Ningbo and Zhapu have entered the closed state ahead of schedule, and all foreign ships entering the port and unloading operations have been suspended. Affected by this, many imported methanol ships postpone their unloading time at the port, and this week, traders and downstream steadily pick up the goods from public warehousing, and East China inventory has dropped significantly. The tightening of tradable sources and the rigid need for centralized replenishment have led to continued price increases in East China. However, after the phased closure of the voyage, the situation of imported cargoes arriving at the port for unloading may appear again. In addition, the previous estimate is concentrated on imported cargo arriving at the port from late July to early August. The overall arrival and unloading progress is backward. shift. The actual storage time in East China will also shift back as a whole. Zhuochuang estimates that East China port inventory will rise steadily in early and mid-August, and tradable sources will be actively released. At that time, Jiangsu methanol market prices may enter a weak adjustment cycle. Pay attention to the real-time weather, the progress of unloading imported cargo and the inventory of downstream raw materials.
The typhoon “fireworks” hit, resulting in most of the restrictions on the transportation of propylene imports and domestic cargo, and the impact of regional differences in supply and demand is also different. Due to the fact that domestic cargoes are mainly concentrated in East China, most of the ports in Zhejiang area have already begun to enter the state of port closure due to the impact of the typhoon, and export and export cargoes are temporarily suspended. The main port area of the Yangtze River has also entered a closed state, and the inflow of cargoes in the Jiangsu area has also been suspended. In the short-term, the Jiangsu region has a tight supply due to the delay of imports and southern cargoes. Some production companies in the Zhejiang region have gradually increased their inventory due to the hindrance of export sales, and there is a possibility of reducing production in the future. However, considering the fact that the supply and demand side is still the dominant factor in the market, the short-term typhoon has little effect on market prices for the time being.
Starting on the evening of July 20, typhoon “Fireworks” affected the North Channel of the Yangtze River Estuary to stop operations. Near July 25, the typhoon landed in Zhejiang and Shanghai, and enterprises and terminals in the area began to stop loading and unloading operations. In the short term, under the influence of the typhoon, the normal delivery of goods will be hindered. Near the end of the month, the delivery of paper goods and the demand for replenishment may boost market. The arrival of large ships of more than 10,000 tons in the Middle East that will arrive at the main port this week will be delayed, and the main port inventory may decline, which will further benefit the market. If the typhoon lasts for a long time, attention should be paid to the operation of upstream and downstream production enterprises. However, the general weather impact is mostly a short-term impact on the market, and the long-term market will still return to the fundamental impact.
Affected by the arrival of the typhoon, the port of Zhapu, Zhejiang today stopped loading and unloading, which affected the arrival time of a 4000-ton vessel. In addition, a downstream in Jiande, Zhejiang requested a temporary shutdown. In addition, Jiangsu will turn to heavy rain, and the weather forecast typhoon is expected to arrive in Shandong. The impact on the follow-up supply and demand of the ethanol industry remains to be further observed. In the recent ethanol market, there is a phenomenon of “involution”. Under the background of weak supply and demand, sellers are actively shipping. The purchase price of 7,000 tons of Shandong Co., Ltd. downstream tender has reached 6,530 yuan/ton, which is 160 yuan/ton lower than the price in mid-July.
Ethylene glycol butyl ether
In July 2021, China’s ethylene glycol butyl ether market began to decline after it surged, and the impact of supply and demand was greater. During the month, the main domestic factories were shut down for 11 days, the port arrivals were scarce, and the favorable supply side helped the market price to break through the 20,000 yuan mark. However, as the demand was weak and domestic production continued to drive, the industry sentiment faded, and market negotiations began to negotiate prices. slide. However, with the typhoon fireworks, the 3000 tons of cargo originally expected to reach Zhangjiagang in East China will not be put into the market in a short time. In addition, the overall inventory in East China is in a low position. According to statistics from Zhuo Chuang, the current East China ethylene glycol butyl ether/diethylene glycol The overall social inventory of butyl ether is around 3,000 tons, short-term port spot supply is limited, and the market’s main importers have a better attitude to offer. In the long-term, although the short-term weather will affect market supply to a certain extent, the follow-up Saudi supply will continue to recover, and the domestic tight supply situation will continue to recover. Considering the current high market prices, downstream resistance is more obvious, and the supply and demand imbalance may be expected. It began to become apparent after mid-August.
Typhoon “Fireworks” has complex characteristics and long-term effects continue to be concerned
According to meteorological experts, the typhoon “Fireworks” has the characteristics of complex path, wide range of influence, superimposed wind and rain tide, long on-land maintenance time after landing, and large accumulated rainfall. Typhoon “Fireworks” may stay for a long time after landing, bringing continuous heavy rainfall and strong winds to East China. At the same time, it is during the astronomical tide period. Three storms and tides meet. The public in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, etc. Prevent the occurrence of disasters such as urban and rural waterlogging, floods in small and medium-sized rivers, and mountain torrents. In addition, Shandong, Henan and other places also need to pay close attention to the future mobile trend and influence of “fireworks”.
Comprehensive analysis shows that the impact of short-term viewing of typhoon “fireworks” on chemicals is mostly manifested in the indirect impact caused by transportation restrictions, and the mid- to long-term impact depends on the changes in the future typhoon. 1. Restricted transportation leads to poor sales or even stagnation, and some companies have overstocked inventory, or cause load reduction and stop production; 2. Transportation restrictions lead to poor procurement and insufficient raw material reserves. Downstream production may be forced to stop or reduce load; 3. Following the resumption of shipping, the imported goods will be concentrated to the port, and the short-term increase in supply may have a negative impact on prices. In the later stage, the residence time and operation path of the typhoon “Fireworks” are not very certain, so the further impact on the market is difficult to judge for the time being. Zhuo Chuang Information will continue to follow up and report in time.
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