Of Martina Soligo e Chiara Di Michele
Despite higher-than-expected US inflation data, analysts appear confident about the next moves in monetary policy. Today is the “expiration” of the three witches
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The European stock exchanges they are moving cautiously in the aftermath of higher-than-expected US inflation data, despite analysts appearing confident about the next moves in monetary policy. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 60.1% chance of a 25 basis point cut in June, versus 55.2% a week ago. Bofa’s CEO, Brian T. Moynihan, was also positive and, in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, said that «the ECB and the Fed could start cutting rates at the same time, in June this year, and proceed with the same pace throughout 2024, the ECB’s cutting cycle will end up being much faster than in the United States.” Meanwhile, numbers on import prices and US industrial production are expected today.
In this scenario, on the day of the three witches (the futures on indices, options on indices and options on shares expire at the same time) the indices of the Old Continent move above parity: the FTSE MIB of Milan, the CAC 40 of Paris, the DAX 30 of Frankfurt, theIBEX 35 in Madrid, l’AEX of Amsterdam and the FT-SE 100 from London. The BTP-Bund spread, after falling below 120 basis points on Thursday 14 December, rises to around 127 basis points.
The Piazza Affari slips Cucinelli
On the Milanese price list it recorded a sharp decline Brunello Cucinelli , the day after the presentation of the accounts, after the increases in the last sessions. Bad too Moncler on a negative day for European luxury, with losses also for Lvmh e Dry in Paris. Banks with Banca Mps e Banca Pop Er . Profit taking up Leonardo – Finmeccanica , after the good performances of the previous sessions, following the presentation of the plan on Tuesday. All eyes on the European telecommunications sector, therefore up Telecom Italia in Milan, after the acquisition of Vodafone by Swisscom for 8 billion euros, with the aim of integrating it with Fastweb (Swisscom’s affiliate in Italy).
Euro still weak against the dollar
On the currency, the weakness of the euro continues, trading at 1.088 dollars (from 1.0891 at the closing the day before). The single currency is also worth 161.47 yen (from 161.33), while the dollar/yen exchange rate is at 148.36 (from 148.11). The price of oil fell slightly, with April WTI futures falling by 0.12% to 81.16 dollars a barrel and May Brent at 85.26 dollars (-0.19%). Natural gas in Amsterdam also rose by 0.5% to 26.18 euros per megawatt hour.
Asia closes lower
The Tokyo Stock Exchange concludes the last session of the week with a negative sign, weighed down by sales in the technology sector, which counterbalance the gains in the energy sector after the rise in oil prices, to the highest in four months. The Nikkei reference list recorded a decline of 0.26% to 38,777.64, and a loss of 99 points. On the currency front, the yen is stable against the dollar at 148.30, and against the euro at 161.30.
Stock markets in Asia and the Pacific area are generally down, also looking at Wall Street and producer inflation in the US, higher than expected, a figure that could delay the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The continuous and increasingly rapid decline in house prices in China also weighs heavily, with the Hong Kong stock market dropping 1.8% and Seoul losing 1.9%. Sydney is also weak (-0.5%). At the end, Shanghai and Shenzhen reversed course and rose by a few fractions of a point. Futures on the start of European stock listings are uncertain.
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